Defining the Balance Ahead of Powell

Morning Express Research Posts

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NVDA’s earnings ripped the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ through critical areas of resistance. Gold and Silver had banner sessions. Crude is consolidating lower. We set the stage with everything you needs to know ahead of Powell’s big speech tomorrow.

  • Initial Jobless Claims came in better than expected at 230k versus 240k, but the four-week average was above forecast at 237k versus 235k.
  • Durable Goods were mixed with headline missing -5.2% versus -4.0% m/m and Core beating at +0.5% versus +0.2%.
  • Keep an ear to the ground for a loose but jam-packed schedule of Fed speak, as many will be making media network appearances and holding talks within the symposium.

E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4447.00, up 47.75

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,195.50, 237.00

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures had a banner rebound session before NVDA blew the doors off another earnings report. Price action in the E-mini S&P ran into a critical level of resistance intraday, the scene of the crime, if you will, our rare major four-star at 4454-4459. Similarly, the E-mini NQ ran into rare major four-star resistance at 15,270-15,336 before settling at 15,195 and above the 15,164 level. However, NVDA’s third beat and raise in a row ripped each index out above those levels. The company topped lofty expectations of $12 billion in sales for the quarter ending in July and $14 billion forecast for the current quarter with $13.5 billion and $16 billion, respectively.

As Jackson Hole gets underway, a deluge of Fed speak (listed above) will bring added volatility. Although the previous resistance is now the first key support, adjusted to 4455.25-4459, the gap settlement at 4447 becomes the line in the sand. Similarly, we have 15,242-15,270 as the first key support in the E-mini NQ, but 15,164-15,195 as the rare major four-star line in the sand.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 4491-4492.25***, 4506***, 4517.75-4525***

Pivot: 4465.50               

Support: 4455.25-4459**, 4447***, 4438.50**, 4427.50-4432***, 4408.50-4412.50***, 4396-4399.25***, 4382.50-4384.50***, 4367.25-4372.25***

NQ (Sept)

Resistance: 15,336-15,345****, 15,442**, 15,485-15,508***, 15,583-15,610**, 15,780-15,817****  

Support: 14,242-15,270**, 15,164-15,195****, 15,092**,14,983-15,007***, 14,932-14,958***, 14,856-14,870***, 14,778-14,806***

Crude Oil (October)

Yesterday’s: Settled at 78.89, down 0.75

Crude Oil futures are trading a bit heavily but maintaining a consolidation pattern above significant support. Yesterday morning, our downside target of 77.76 was achieved before a bounce. Although the EIA report did bid Crude Oil futures with a larger headline draw in Crude, key resistance at 79.46-79.64 held perfectly. This level is now major three-star resistance, and the bulls must clear this pocket in order to reinvigorate the tape or face continued waves of selling/liquidation.

Bias: NeutralResistance: 79.07*, 79.46-79.64***, 80.12-80.21**, 80.97-81.38***

Pivot: 78.75-78.90                     

Support: 78.33-78.60**, 77.76***, 76.78-76.84***

Gold (December) / Silver (September)

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled 1948.1, up 22.1

Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 24.392, up 0.942

Gold and Silver futures had already begun a recovery phase, but a lighter-than-expected flash PMI report yesterday morning helped bring a secondary tailwind, subduing the U.S. Dollar’s strength and bidding Treasuries. Initial Jobless Claims came in better than expected this morning at 230k versus 240k and encouraged some selling in both, but we are watching the four-week average, which came in higher than forecast at 237k versus 235k. This brings us to today’s deluge of Fed speak, which leads into Fed Chair Powell tomorrow. It becomes paramount that Gold and Silver futures receive and respond to supports listed below.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 1946.6-1948.1**, 1957.5***, 1971.5**, 1976.1-1982.6****      

Support: 1939.2-1940.7***, 1931.5-1935.3***, 1926-1927.9**, 1922.5-1923***, 1913.6-1916.5***, 1903.6-1906.9***

Silver (September)

Resistance: 24.40***, 24.50-24.63**, 24.97***

Pivot: 24.25

Support: 24.06-24.18**, 23.87***, 23.69-23.72**, 23.36-23.49***, 22.95-23.07****

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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