Corn and Soybean Futures GAP HIGHER!

Research Posts Grain Express

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Corn and soybeans trade higher following Friday afternoon’s release of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour yield estimates. How long will the rally last?

Corn
Technicals (December)
December corn futures gaped higher on the Sunday night open, thanks in large part to Pro Farmer’s yield estimates coupled with intermediate term weather forecasts.  If the Bulls can defend the overnight strength, a retest of our resistance pocket from 502-506 1/2 is in the cards. A break and close below 480-482 would put the Bears back in the driver’s seat. 

News
Pro Farmer released their national average production estimates Friday after the close.  They estimate the U.S. Corn yield at 172 bushels per acre and production at 14.96 billion bushels.Commitments of Traders report, managed funds hold a net-short position of 121,612 futures contracts (262,748 short positions compared to 161,136 long positions), their largest net short position since August of 2020. 

Resistance: 502-506 1/2***, 518-525 3/4****
Pivot:  480-482 
Support:  472-476****, 460-464 1/2**
ZCZ2023_2023-08-28_06-52-27
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at seasonal averages for December corn.  The 5-year seasonal average suggests seasonal consolidation while longer term averages continue to trend lower into harvest. 
8.28.23 Dec Corn Seasonal Tendencies
Soybeans 
Technicals (November)
November soybeans gapped higher on the Sunday night open and have retained much of that strength through the overnight and early morning trade.  The Pro Farmer yield estimates coupled with hotter and drier weather has helped propel prices back to levels not seen since last month.  If the Bulls can defend the overnight and early morning strength as well as the psychologically significant $14.00 handle, we could see a retest of the top end of July’s range, 1420s-1430s.NewsPro Farmer released their national average production estimates Friday after the close.  They estimate the U.S. soybean yield at 49.7 bushels per acre and production at 4.11 billion bushels.Commitments of Traders report, managed funds hold a net-long position of 54,283 contracts. Broken down, that is 97,524 long positions and 43,241 short positions.
Resistance: 1409 1/2**, 1428-1435****
Pivot: 1390 1/2
Support:  1373-1381****, 1350-1355***
ZSX2023_2023-08-28_07-02-07
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at seasonal averages for November soybeans.  We’ve noted in previous reports that seasonal tendencies suggest this is a time of year where the market attempts to consolidate and carve out a near term low. 
8.28.23 Nov Soybean Seasonal
Temperature and Precipitation OutlookBelow is a look at the updated 6-10 day weather outlook.  As you can clearly see, much of the Midwest is expected to see above normal temperatures coupled with below normal precipitation through the first week of September.  This comes on the back of last week’s heat which likely didn’t do many favors to the soybean (or corn) crop. 
82823610temp.new
8.28.23610prcp.new

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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