Corn and soybeans trade higher following Friday afternoon’s release of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour yield estimates. How long will the rally last?
December corn futures gaped higher on the Sunday night open, thanks in large part to Pro Farmer’s yield estimates coupled with intermediate term weather forecasts. If the Bulls can defend the overnight strength, a retest of our resistance pocket from 502-506 1/2 is in the cards. A break and close below 480-482 would put the Bears back in the driver’s seat.
Pro Farmer released their national average production estimates Friday after the close. They estimate the U.S. Corn yield at 172 bushels per acre and production at 14.96 billion bushels.Commitments of Traders report, managed funds hold a net-short position of 121,612 futures contracts (262,748 short positions compared to 161,136 long positions), their largest net short position since August of 2020.
Resistance: 502-506 1/2***, 518-525 3/4****
Support: 472-476****, 460-464 1/2**
Below is a look at seasonal averages for December corn. The 5-year seasonal average suggests seasonal consolidation while longer term averages continue to trend lower into harvest.
November soybeans gapped higher on the Sunday night open and have retained much of that strength through the overnight and early morning trade. The Pro Farmer yield estimates coupled with hotter and drier weather has helped propel prices back to levels not seen since last month. If the Bulls can defend the overnight and early morning strength as well as the psychologically significant $14.00 handle, we could see a retest of the top end of July’s range, 1420s-1430s.NewsPro Farmer released their national average production estimates Friday after the close. They estimate the U.S. soybean yield at 49.7 bushels per acre and production at 4.11 billion bushels.Commitments of Traders report, managed funds hold a net-long position of 54,283 contracts. Broken down, that is 97,524 long positions and 43,241 short positions.
Resistance: 1409 1/2**, 1428-1435****
Pivot: 1390 1/2
Support: 1373-1381****, 1350-1355***
Below is a look at seasonal averages for November soybeans. We’ve noted in previous reports that seasonal tendencies suggest this is a time of year where the market attempts to consolidate and carve out a near term low.
|Temperature and Precipitation OutlookBelow is a look at the updated 6-10 day weather outlook. As you can clearly see, much of the Midwest is expected to see above normal temperatures coupled with below normal precipitation through the first week of September. This comes on the back of last week’s heat which likely didn’t do many favors to the soybean (or corn) crop.|