Inflation data and quad witching collide with fresh treasury supply to build a narrative into next week’s Fed policy decision.
We enter another critical two-week stretch, this one characterized by U.S. CPI Wednesday, Quadruple Witching Friday, and the Federal Reserve’s policy decision next Wednesday. Risk-assets are firm this morning after an article from Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal over the weekend, discussing a shift at the Fed to be more patient with rate increases to assess the economy. Additional tailwinds came from stronger-than-expected New Loans data from China overnight. Still, the 10-year and 30-year Treasury futures are essentially battling at two-and-a-half-week lows, the area in which they rallied off a low on August 23rd, meaning rates are lurking at elevated levels. The U.S. Treasury plans to auction $44 billion 3-year Notes at noon CT today, $35 billion 10-years tomorrow and $20 billion 30-years on Wednesday. A deluge of economic data this week including inflation and retail sales will collide with the added supply as we head through Quad Witching volatility and build expectations for next week’s Fed policy decision.
E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 4461.75, up 5.50 on Friday and down 59.75 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 15,297.50, up 15.25 on Friday and down 218.75 on the week
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 4483-4585.50*, 4491-4494.25***, 4501.75-4504***, 4516.50-4521.50***
Pivot: 4477.50
Support: 4468.75-4473**, 4561.75***, 4445.50-4447**, 4434.25-4438.50**, 4425.50**, 4414.25***, 4386-4395***
NQ (Sept)
Resistance: 15,390-14,423***, 15,514-15,538***, 15,593-15,610***
Support: 15,345**, 15,270-15,297***, 15,157-15,195***, 15,048-15,075***, 14,979***
Crude Oil (October)
Last week’s close: Settled at 87.51, up 0.64 on Friday and up 1.96 on the week
Bias: Bullish
Resistance: 87.95-88.09***, 89.14***
Pivot: 87.51
Support: 86.83**, 86.15-86.41***, 85.52-85.56***, 84.82-85.03***, 83.69-84.16***
Gold (December) / Silver (December)
Gold, last week’s close: Settled 1942.7, up 0.2 on Friday and down 24.4 on the week
Silver, last week’s close: Settled at 23.174, down 0.066 on Friday and down 1.388 on the week
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1954.2-1954.8***, 1963.9-1967.1***, 1976.1-1982.6****
Pivot: 1946-1947.9
Support: 1939-1941.7**, 1926-1931****
Silver (December)
Resistance: 23.38-23.45**, 23.65-23.76***
Pivot: 23.25
Support: 23.04-23.08***, 22.72-22.85**