It’s officially USDA Day. Here are the estimates and some of the levels to keep an eye on through today’s trade.
USDA Report Estimates
Scheduled to be released today at 11am CT.
- For those still interested in the weekly crop progress data. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) rated 52% of the U.S. corn crop as “good to excellent”, down 1 percentage point from last week, matching the average analyst estimate.
- Brazilian farmers had harvested 93% of the area planted for their second corn crop in the center-south region by Sept. 07, consultancy AgRural said on Monday, adding that soybean planting has begun in some places.
- Yesterday’s weekly export inspections were reported at 623,862 metric tons (24,560,355 bushels), up from 482,789 in the previous week.
December corn futures remain rangebound, keeping technical levels and our bias/thesis intact from basically all of last week. That thesis being this is an environment filled with short term opportunities for participants on both sides of the market. On a longer-term time frame the market may be building up energy for a bigger directional move. Will today’s USDA report be the catalyst to spark that next move? Volatility hit a one-month low last week which has made options more appealing to hedge risk or take a position in the market.
Resistance: 497 1/2**, 502-506 1/2***, 518-525 3/4****
Support: 472-476****, 460-464 1/2**
Below is a look at seasonal averages for December corn. The 5-year seasonal average (red line in chart below) suggests that the recent consolidation could start to turn into a market bottom. Longer term moving averages on the other hand suggest more weakness in the back half of September.
- The USDA rated 52% of the soybean crop as “good to excellent”, down 1 percentage point from a week ago, while 13 analysts surveyed by Reuters on average had expected a 2-point decline to 51%.
- Yesterday marked the seventh straight Monday of a flash sale for something int he soy complex. Private exporters reported sales of 185,000 MT of soybean cake and meal for delivery to the Philippines during MY 2023/2024.
- Yesterday’s weekly export sales were reported at 310,073 metric tons (11,393,229 bushels), down from 406,934 in the previous week.
November soybeans are nestled in with trendline support and the 50-day moving average this morning. A failure to defend this area through today’s USDA report could trigger some long liquidation with little technical support until the 200-day moving average near 1331. Despite the bullish headlines, we are cautious on beans from these levels as well as from a seasonality standpoint.
Resistance: 1390 1/2-1392**, 1409 1/2**, 1428-1435****
Support: 1350-1355***, 1331**
Below is a look at seasonal averages for November soybeans. Seasonal tendencies have shown weakness through the back half of September for the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages, illustrated in the chart below.
- Yesterday’s crop progress report showed 87% of the spring wheat crop is harvested. 7% of winter wheat is planted.
- Yesterday’s weekly export sales were reported at 406,181 metric tons (14,924,592 bushels), up from 318,076 in the previous week.
December wheat futures made new lows yesterday and again in the overnight and early morning trade. With the market trading in uncharted territory, finding the next meaningful support pocket becomes a bigger and more difficult task. The Bulls need to see a close back above the 595-599 1/2 to spark something more.
Resistance: 612-616****, 643 1/2-646 1/4****
Pivot: 595-599 1/2
Below is a look at seasonal averages for December Chicago wheat. We are inching closer to a seasonal low (based on historical tendencies). Will that play out again this year? TBD.