Grain Markets Under Pressure

Grain Express Research Posts

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A weaker tone to start a new week.  Corn is near unchanged while soybean and wheat futures are under pressure.

Corn

News

  • In the week ended Sept. 12, money managers expanded their net short position in CBOT corn futures and options to 134,909 contracts from 93,913 a week earlier. This is the most bearish corn stance from Funds since mid-August 2020, when CBOT corn was trading below $3.50 per bushel. 

Technicals (December)

Corn futures continue to linger near the low end of their recent trading range.  A break and close below 472-476 could trigger additional selling pressure with the next downside target for the Bears coming in from 460-464 1/2. On the resistance side of things, the Bulls want to see consecutive closes back above 489-491 to neutralize the bearish sentiment and chart structure.  

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 497 1/2**, 502-506 1/2***, 518-525 3/4****

Pivot:  489-491

Support:  472-476****, 460-464 1/2**

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is the updated look at historical seasonalities VS today’s prices (black line).

Soybeans

News

  • U.S. National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data on Friday showed U.S. soybean crush fell to an 11-month low in August, below almost all trade estimates.  Weak crushing demand comes as U.S. exports struggle to compete with record Brazilian shipments.

Technicals (November)

Soybeans are trading back near last week’s low which is just above our 3-star support pocket, 1330-1332 1/2.  A break and close below this pocket and we could see the long liquidation accelerate.  The next downside objective for the Bears would be 1300-1304.  On the resistance side of things, the Bulls need to see consecutive closes back above 1350-1355 to encourage buying or at the very least consolidation.  Seasonality typically favors the Bear camp this time of year which is illustrated in the second chart below. 

Bias: Bearish/Neutral

Resistance: 1373-1381***, 1390 1/2-1392**

Pivot: 1350-1355

Support: 1330-1332 1/2***, 1300-1304****

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is an updated look at seasonal averages for November soybeans.  Seasonal tendencies have shown weakness through the back half of September for the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages, illustrated in the chart below.

Wheat

News

  • Russia launched a combined drone and missile attack on Ukraine early on Sunday, targeting chiefly the southern parts of the Odesa region and hitting an agriculture facility. -Reuters

Technicals (December)

Wheat futures had a strong move higher in Friday’s trade which set the table for follow-through buying to start this week’s trade.  The maker has had other plans thus far though and has given back near all of Friday’s gains.  We remain optimistic on prices from these levels so long as the Bulls can defend support.  A breakout above 612-616 would be the technical catalyst to spark a bigger rally. 

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 612-616****, 643 1/2-646 1/4****

Pivot: 595-599 1/2 

Support: 585-587, 507**

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is an updated look at seasonal averages for December Chicago wheat.  We are inching closer to a seasonal low (based on historical tendencies).  Will that play out again this year? TBD.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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