A weaker tone to start a new week. Corn is near unchanged while soybean and wheat futures are under pressure.
- In the week ended Sept. 12, money managers expanded their net short position in CBOT corn futures and options to 134,909 contracts from 93,913 a week earlier. This is the most bearish corn stance from Funds since mid-August 2020, when CBOT corn was trading below $3.50 per bushel.
Corn futures continue to linger near the low end of their recent trading range. A break and close below 472-476 could trigger additional selling pressure with the next downside target for the Bears coming in from 460-464 1/2. On the resistance side of things, the Bulls want to see consecutive closes back above 489-491 to neutralize the bearish sentiment and chart structure.
Resistance: 497 1/2**, 502-506 1/2***, 518-525 3/4****
Support: 472-476****, 460-464 1/2**
Below is the updated look at historical seasonalities VS today’s prices (black line).
- U.S. National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data on Friday showed U.S. soybean crush fell to an 11-month low in August, below almost all trade estimates. Weak crushing demand comes as U.S. exports struggle to compete with record Brazilian shipments.
Soybeans are trading back near last week’s low which is just above our 3-star support pocket, 1330-1332 1/2. A break and close below this pocket and we could see the long liquidation accelerate. The next downside objective for the Bears would be 1300-1304. On the resistance side of things, the Bulls need to see consecutive closes back above 1350-1355 to encourage buying or at the very least consolidation. Seasonality typically favors the Bear camp this time of year which is illustrated in the second chart below.
Resistance: 1373-1381***, 1390 1/2-1392**
Support: 1330-1332 1/2***, 1300-1304****
Below is an updated look at seasonal averages for November soybeans. Seasonal tendencies have shown weakness through the back half of September for the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages, illustrated in the chart below.
- Russia launched a combined drone and missile attack on Ukraine early on Sunday, targeting chiefly the southern parts of the Odesa region and hitting an agriculture facility. -Reuters
Wheat futures had a strong move higher in Friday’s trade which set the table for follow-through buying to start this week’s trade. The maker has had other plans thus far though and has given back near all of Friday’s gains. We remain optimistic on prices from these levels so long as the Bulls can defend support. A breakout above 612-616 would be the technical catalyst to spark a bigger rally.
Resistance: 612-616****, 643 1/2-646 1/4****
Pivot: 595-599 1/2
Support: 585-587, 507**
Below is an updated look at seasonal averages for December Chicago wheat. We are inching closer to a seasonal low (based on historical tendencies). Will that play out again this year? TBD.