The VIX is higher early Monday, what is it telling us? How are we trading E-mini S&P futures from Friday’s sell-off into Monday? Also includes levels for the E-mini NQ, Crude Oil, Gold, and Silver (futures).
VIX is on the move this morning. This signals some fear out there, but the VIX is a gauge of put option demand and tells the story of managers repositioning with put protection. Big Quad Witching expiration last Friday, and it is no coincidence September E-mini S&P futures went off the board trading from 4515 to 4480 Friday morning and settled (expired) at 4491 at 8:30 am CT, and the December E-mini S&P futures contract continued lower to settle at 4494 at 3:00 pm CT, erasing a 20 point gap. Also, the SPX settled right at a big open interest for options at 4450. There was a floor created by demand for puts over the last three months, post-rally in June. As that demand picked up from the middle of June, it created a floor underneath the market. That floor was removed with Friday’s expiration. Typically, our game plan after such a large expiration is to see weakness on Monday, into the lunch hour. Given Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy decision, unless another shoe drops, such as a fallout in Treasuries, it becomes highly likely we will see a consolidation from today’s low and into the Wednesday 1:00 pm CT Fed announcement.
E-mini S&P (December) / E-mini NQ (December)
S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 4498, down 57.00 on Friday and 13.25 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 15392.25, down 281.25 on Friday and 101.50 on the week
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 4503-4507.75***, 4517.50-4519.25***, 4525-4528**, 4539.50- 4544.75***, 4552-4555****
Support: 4495-4498***, 4483.25***, 4463-4474****, 4444.75
NQ (Dec)
Resistance: 15,463-15,468**, 15,489-15,508***, 15,531-15,552***, 15,627**, 15,673***, 15,709-15,732****
Support: 15,323-15,354***, 15,167-15,198***, 15,139**, 15,006-15,048***
Crude Oil (November)
Last week’s close: Settled at 90.02, up 0.41 on Friday and 3.21 on the week
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 92.61-92.64**, 93.62-93.74***, 94.36-95.00***
Pivot: 90.56
Support: 90.02-90.28**, 88.65-88.85***, 87.49-87.74***
Gold (December) / Silver (December)
Gold, last week’s close: Settled 1946.2, up 13.4 on Friday and 3.5 on the week
Silver, last week’s close: Settled at 23.386, up 0.392 on Friday and 0.212 on the week
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1950.1-1954.8***, 1957.8**, 1966.4-1971.1***, 1977.1**, 1980.2-1984.7***
Pivot: 1947
Support: 1943.8*, 1937.2-1938.4**, 1931-1932.8***, 1921.7-1926***, 1913.6-1916.2***
Silver (December)
Resistance: 23.50-23.58**, 23.65-23.76***, 23.99***
Support: 23.23-23.30**, 22.99-23.08***, 22.85**, 22.55-22.72****, 22.30***