Managers Are Repositioning

Morning Express Research Posts

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The VIX is higher early Monday, what is it telling us? How are we trading E-mini S&P futures from Friday’s sell-off into Monday? Also includes levels for the E-mini NQ, Crude Oil, Gold, and Silver (futures).

VIX is on the move this morning. This signals some fear out there, but the VIX is a gauge of put option demand and tells the story of managers repositioning with put protection. Big Quad Witching expiration last Friday, and it is no coincidence September E-mini S&P futures went off the board trading from 4515 to 4480 Friday morning and settled (expired) at 4491 at 8:30 am CT, and the December E-mini S&P futures contract continued lower to settle at 4494 at 3:00 pm CT, erasing a 20 point gap. Also, the SPX settled right at a big open interest for options at 4450. There was a floor created by demand for puts over the last three months, post-rally in June. As that demand picked up from the middle of June, it created a floor underneath the market. That floor was removed with Friday’s expiration. Typically, our game plan after such a large expiration is to see weakness on Monday, into the lunch hour. Given Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy decision, unless another shoe drops, such as a fallout in Treasuries, it becomes highly likely we will see a consolidation from today’s low and into the Wednesday 1:00 pm CT Fed announcement.

E-mini S&P (December) / E-mini NQ (December)

S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 4498, down 57.00 on Friday and 13.25 on the week

NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 15392.25, down 281.25 on Friday and 101.50 on the week

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 4503-4507.75***, 4517.50-4519.25***, 4525-4528**, 4539.50- 4544.75***, 4552-4555****

Support: 4495-4498***, 4483.25***, 4463-4474****, 4444.75

NQ (Dec)

Resistance: 15,463-15,468**, 15,489-15,508***, 15,531-15,552***, 15,627**, 15,673***, 15,709-15,732****

Support: 15,323-15,354***, 15,167-15,198***, 15,139**, 15,006-15,048***

Crude Oil (November)

Last week’s close: Settled at 90.02, up 0.41 on Friday and 3.21 on the week

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 92.61-92.64**, 93.62-93.74***, 94.36-95.00***

Pivot: 90.56

Support: 90.02-90.28**, 88.65-88.85***, 87.49-87.74***

Gold (December) / Silver (December)

Gold, last week’s close: Settled 1946.2, up 13.4 on Friday and 3.5 on the week

Silver, last week’s close: Settled at 23.386, up 0.392 on Friday and 0.212 on the week

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 1950.1-1954.8***, 1957.8**, 1966.4-1971.1***, 1977.1**, 1980.2-1984.7***

Pivot: 1947

Support: 1943.8*, 1937.2-1938.4**, 1931-1932.8***, 1921.7-1926***, 1913.6-1916.2***

Silver (December)

Resistance: 23.50-23.58**, 23.65-23.76***, 23.99***

Support: 23.23-23.30**, 22.99-23.08***, 22.85**, 22.55-22.72****, 22.30***

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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