The Federal Reserve’s policy decision is tomorrow, we give you a detailed gameplan for the E-mini S&P, E-mini NQ, Crude Oil, Gold, and Silver (futures).
E-mini S&P (December) / E-mini NQ (December)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4501.50, up 3.50
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,414.50, up 22.25
On the heels of Quadruple Witching and ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy decision, E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures put an intraday low on yesterday’s opening bell. However, the recovery was shallow and was kept in check by first key resistance. Although the post-expiration playbook did not unfold, yesterday’s contained rebound and early Treasury weakness this morning will keep the door open for fresh selling. Major three-star support aligns multiple indicators at the September 7th low, but it is rare major four-star support below there at 4463-4474, aligning with the August 25th gap, that could become a magnet for price action. Ultimately, continued price action below our Pivot and point of balance at 4502.25 in the E-mini S&P and 15,406-15,415 in the E-mini NQ will leave the bears in the driver’s seat today.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 4507.75**, 4512.75-4517.50***, 4525-4528**, 4539.50-4544.75***, 4552-4555****
Pivot: 4502.25
Support: 4496.50-4598**, 4490**, 4483.25-4586.75***, 4463-4474****, 4444.75
NQ (Dec)
Resistance: 15,463-15,468**, 15,489-15,508***, 15,531-15,552***, 15,627**, 15,673***, 15,709-15,732****
Pivot: 15,406-15,415
Support: 15,323-15,354***, 15,167-15,198***, 15,139**, 15,006-15,048***
Crude Oil (November)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 90.58, up 0.56
It took a few months, but the Saudi-led production cuts have underpinned a one-way bull run in Crude Oil futures. The price surge has not gone unnoticed; the Commitment of Traders shows the Managed Money Net-Long at the highest level since January 31, 2022. However, it is important to understand the Managed Money Net-Long position gravitated between this level and as much as 50% higher from June 2020 through June 2021.
Today’s latest rip higher comes as the October contract becomes untradeable at the session settlement today and goes into delivery tomorrow. It is not uncommon to see a market, and especially Crude Oil, incur such extreme directionality after triggering through elevated levels into expiration. It also is not uncommon to create an intermediate-term top upon such expiration.
Price action is closing in on our next key resistance at 92.61-92.64, and never traded yesterday’s settlement of 90.58 on today’s session. We will keep it simple: 90.58 aligns with last week’s high of 90.56 and creates major three-star support. This is the line in the sand; a move and close below here will signal near-term exhaustion and open the door for a mean-reversion. Until then, the bulls are in the driver’s seat.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 92.61-92.64**, 93.62-93.74***, 94.36-95.00***
Pivot: 90.56
Support: 91.65-91.68**, 91.03-91.16*, 90.56-90.58***, 90.02-90.28**, 88.65-88.85***, 87.49-87.74***
Gold (December) / Silver (December)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled 1953.4, up 7.2
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 23.498, up 0.112
Gold and Silver futures are showing terrific signs of life, but this is not when one wants to chase the tape. Of course, they just held a tremendous area of support and could be setting up for the next bull run, but each is trading into a critical area of resistance this morning. For Gold, it settled at the 1950-1954.8 pocket yesterday, and is trading above it this morning, but it is certainly not in the clear trading into the September 5th fallout, and such overhead supply created from that failure. Additionally, we have major three-star resistance in Silver at 23.65-23.75, aligning with the tail-end of the September 1-6th fallout. More importantly, this aligns with the .382 retracement back to the August 30th high, and it is our belief that markets in a downtrend fail at the .382 retracement. It is go-time for Silver this week, can it finish out above here and invite fresh buying.
Look for steady price action today above our Pivot and point of balance, detailed below, to help keep a buoyant tape. Additionally, traders must keep a pulse on the Treasury complex, continued weakness here will act as a headwind.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1957.8**, 1966.4-1971.1***, 1977.1**, 1980.2-1984.7***
Pivot: 1953.4-1954.8***
Support: 1946.2-1949.5**, 1943.8***, 1937.2-1938.4**, 1931-1932.8***, 1921.7-1926***, 1913.6-1916.2***
Silver (December)
Resistance: 23.65-23.76***, 23.99***
Pivot: 23.50-23.58
Support: 23.23-23.30**, 22.99-23.08***, 22.85**, 22.55-22.72****, 22.30***