Grain futures continue to slide lower as harvest looks to hit stride this week in some states. What are the support levels that the Bulls need to defend?
Corn
News
- Yesterday’s weekly export inspections were reported at 642,095 metric tons (25,278,156 bushels). Within the range expectations and up slightly from 625,244 last week.
- The weekly crop progress report showed good/excellent conditions at 51%, down 1% from last week but in line with estimates. 54% of the crop is reported as mature and 9% is harvested.
- Open interest was up on the day indicating Funds adding to their net short position.
Technicals (December)
Corn futures broke below support at 472 which has taken prices to their lowest levels since September of 2021. This 472-476 pocket will now act as resistance. The Bulls need to see consecutive closes above this pocket to neutralize yesterday’s breakdown. Our next support pocket and target for the Bears comes in from 460-464 1/2. Despite 3 consecutive closes lower and potentially a 4th on the way, the RSI (relative strength index) is only at 36, above what most technicians refer to as oversold.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 489-491***, 502-506 1/2***
Pivot: 472-476
Support:Â 460-464 1/2**
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is the updated look at historical seasonalities VS today’s prices (black line).
SoybeansÂ
News
- A flash sale yesterday morning showed private exporters reported sales of 123,000 metric tons (4,519,475 bushels) of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/2024 marketing year.
- Yesterday’s weekly export inspections were reported at 393,004 metric tons (14,440,421 bushels). Within the range expectations and up slightly from 373,619 last week.
- The weekly crop progress report showed good/excellent conditions at 52%, down 1% from last week but in line with estimates. 5% of the crop is harvested.
- Open interest declined yesterday indicating additional long liquidation from the Funds. Friday’s commitment of trader’s report showed funds still net long roughly 75k contracts.
Technicals (November)
In yesterday’s morning report and interview with RFD-TV we talked about the potential implications of breaking below the 200-day moving average, stating: ” A break and close below this pocket and we could see the long liquidation accelerate. The next downside objective for the Bears would be 1300-1304.”. The Bulls need to defend this pocket to prevent additional pressure down to 1282 which represents previously important price points along with the 50% retracement (middle of the range) from the May lows to the July highs (see chart below).
Bias: Bearish/Neutral
Resistance: 1373-1381***, 1390 1/2-1392**
Pivot: 1350-1355
Support:Â 1330-1332 1/2***, 1300-1304****
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is an updated look at seasonal averages for November soybeans. Seasonal tendencies have shown weakness through the back half of September for the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages, illustrated in the chart below.
Wheat
News
- Yesterday’s weekly export inspections were reported at 367,371 metric tons (13498569 bushels). Within the range of expectations, but down from 367,371 metric tons.
- Yesterday’s weekly export sales report showed 93% of the spring wheat crop is harvested and 15% of the winter wheat crop is planted.
- Open interest was up on the day indicating Funds adding to their net short position.
Technicals (December)
Wheat futures finished last week on a high note but gave back all of Friday’s gains and then some in yesterday’s trade, which has led to additional weakness in the early morning trade. Global stocks to use remain historically low and we are approaching a seasonally strong time of year. Despite those bullish catalysts, the relief rallies have gotten sold into consistently. We like looking at the options market for a way to gain limited risk exposure for a counter trend trade setup.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 595-599 1/2***, 612-616****
Pivot: 585-587
Support:Â 570**
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is an updated look at seasonal averages for December Chicago wheat. We are inching closer to a seasonal low (based on historical tendencies). Will that play out again this year? TBD.
Soybeans
News
- A flash sale yesterday morning showed private exporters reported sales of 123,000 metric tons (4,519,475 bushels) of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/2024 marketing year.
- Yesterday’s weekly export inspections were reported at 393,004 metric tons (14,440,421 bushels). Within the range expectations and up slightly from 373,619 last week.
- The weekly crop progress report showed good/excellent conditions at 52%, down 1% from last week but in line with estimates. 5% of the crop is harvested.
- Open interest declined yesterday indicating additional long liquidation from the Funds. Friday’s commitment of trader’s report showed funds still net long roughly 75k contracts.
Technicals (November)
In yesterday’s morning report and interview with RFD-TV we talked about the potential implications of breaking below the 200-day moving average, stating: ” A break and close below this pocket and we could see the long liquidation accelerate. The next downside objective for the Bears would be 1300-1304.”. The Bulls need to defend this pocket to prevent additional pressure down to 1282 which represents previously important price points along with the 50% retracement (middle of the range) from the May lows to the July highs (see chart below).
Bias: Bearish/Neutral
Resistance: 1373-1381***, 1390 1/2-1392**
Pivot: 1350-1355
Support:Â 1330-1332 1/2***, 1300-1304****
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is an updated look at seasonal averages for November soybeans. Seasonal tendencies have shown weakness through the back half of September for the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages, illustrated in the chart below.
Wheat
News
- Yesterday’s weekly export inspections were reported at 367,371 metric tons (13498569 bushels). Within the range of expectations, but down from 367,371 metric tons.
- Yesterday’s weekly export sales report showed 93% of the spring wheat crop is harvested and 15% of the winter wheat crop is planted.
- Open interest was up on the day indicating Funds adding to their net short position.
Technicals (December)
Wheat futures finished last week on a high note but gave back all of Friday’s gains and then some in yesterday’s trade, which has led to additional weakness in the early morning trade. Global stocks to use remain historically low and we are approaching a seasonally strong time of year. Despite those bullish catalysts, the relief rallies have gotten sold into consistently. We like looking at the options market for a way to gain limited risk exposure for a counter trend trade setup.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 595-599 1/2***, 612-616****
Pivot: 585-587
Support:Â 570**
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is an updated look at seasonal averages for December Chicago wheat. We are inching closer to a seasonal low (based on historical tendencies). Will that play out again this year? TBD.
