Outside markets stabilize which offers support to grain futures in the early morning trade as we head into the last trading day of the week.
- Yesterday’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 566,900 MT (22,317,860 bushels) for 2023/2024. At the low end of expectations and below last week’s 753,298.
- There was a flash-sale reported yesterday morning amounting to 137,160 metric tons (5,399,749 bushels) of corn for delivery to Mexico. Of the total,121,920 metric tons is for delivery during the 2023/2024 marketing year and 15,240 metric tons is for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
As we’ve been saying for the better part of the last month +, this is a trading environment full of shorter-term opportunities for market participants on both sides of the market. Technical levels remain intact.
Resistance: 489-491***, 502-506 1/2***
Support: 460-464 1/2**
Below is the updated look at historical seasonalities VS today’s prices (black line).
Yesterday’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 434,100 MT (15,950,440 bushels) for 2023/2024. Below the low end of estimates and below last week’s 703,862.
November soybean futures broke below the 100-day moving average yesterday which opened the door for some additional long liquidation, taking prices to their lowest levels since the August 8th low. Some of the weakness may have come on the back of outside markets getting pummeled. It seems that has subsided this morning which may lead to some consolidation into the weekend.
Resistance: 1350-1355***, 1373-1381***
Pivot: 1330-1332 1/2
Below is an updated look at seasonal averages for November soybeans. Seasonal tendencies have shown weakness through the back half of September for the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages, illustrated in the chart below.
- Yesterday’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 307,700 MT (11,306,036 bushels) for 2023/2024 were down 30 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. Within the range of expectations but below last week’s 473,850.
December Chicago wheat futures were lower yesterday which led to some pressure in the overnight session, taking prices within a few pennies of the September 12th low. The market has rebounded into positive territory this morning, but the Bulls still have plenty of work to do before getting too excited. The first hurdle would just be getting out above our pivot pocket from 585-587.
Resistance: 595-599 1/2***, 612-616****
Below is an updated look at seasonal averages for December Chicago wheat. We are inching closer to a seasonal low (based on historical tendencies). Will that play out again this year? TBD.