Soybeans test and defend major 4-star support in yesterday’s trade, taking prices back to our pivot pocket from 1300-1304. These are the next upside targets to keep an eye on
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 660,811 metric tons, this was a hair below last week but about 110,000 metric tons more than the same week last year.
- Weekly crop progress showed the US corn harvest at 15%, 2% behind expectations but still 4% ahead of last year’s pace. For those still keeping track of Good/Excellent conditions, that was reported at 53%, up 2% from last week.
It’s a new day, but the same story for the corn market as prices remain rangebound. As we’ve been saying for the better part of the last month +, this is a trading environment full of shorter-term opportunities for market participants on both sides of the market. Technical levels remain intact as the market hovers near our pivot pocket. Perhaps the end of month, end of quarter, and a USDA report this week could spark a little more movement in prices.
Resistance: 489-491***, 502-506 1/2***
Support: 460-464 1/2**
Below is the updated look at historical seasonality’s VS today’s prices (black line).
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 481,638 metric tons, up from last week and noticeably higher from the same week last year.
- Yesterday’s crop progress report showed the US Soybean harvest at 12% complete, 2% behind expectations but still 7% ahead of last year’s pace. Good/Excellent conditions (for those still keeping track) were reported at 50%, down 2% from last week.
Soybeans tested and held our 4-Star support pocket to a T yesterday, marking a low of 1284 1/2. As mentioned in yesterday’s report (and several other times): “we would look at this pocket as a spot to consider buying into on the first test, whether that be short covering or establishing a new position.”. The ability to defend that support pocket flipped our bias from bearish territory to Bullish and has helped bounce prices back into our pivot pocket, 1300-1304. If the Bulls can chew through this pocket, we could see additional relief take prices back to resistance from 1322-1328.
Resistance: 1322-1328****, 1350-1355***
Support: 1280-1285****, 1247-1257***
Below is an updated look at seasonal averages for November soybeans. Seasonal tendencies have shown weakness through the back half of September for the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages, illustrated in the chart below.
- Yesterday’s weekly export inspections report came in at 451,004 metric tons, up marginally from last week but about 140,000 metric tons less than the same week last year.
- Yesterday’s crop progress report showed spring wheat harvest at 96% harvested. The Winter wheat crop is 26% planted and 7% emerged, both within the range of estimates.
Wheat futures are firm in the early morning trade but are approaching resistance from 595-599 1/2. If the Bulls can achieve a close above this pocket, we would look for a retest of the more signification resistance pocket from 612-616. That pocket is more of an inflection point for prices, a move above here could spark a bigger short covering rally.
Resistance: 595-599 1/2***, 612-616****
Below is an updated look at seasonal averages for December Chicago wheat. We are inching closer to a seasonal low (based on historical tendencies). Will that play out again this year? TBD.