Can the Soybean Rally Continue?

Grain Express Research Posts

/ by BlueLineFutures | Leave a comment

Soybeans continued to march higher in the overnight and early morning trade, how much more upside is left?

Corn

News

  • Friday’s Quarterly Stocks Estimate
    • 1.429 billion bushels
  • With Friday being end of month and end of quarter, that may play a role in price action through the remainder of the week.

Technicals (December)

Corn futures had a “surge” higher around 2am, trading up to 485 1/2, the highest price since September 12th.  Our resistance pocket from 489-491 remains intact as the first upside target for the Bull camp.  We are starting to lean a little more favorable on near term price action as we approach end of month and end of quarter.  The downside risk is fairly well defined in our opinion and with volatility relatively low there are ways to get limited risk exposure in the options market.  Trading is not a one size fits all, so feel free to reach out to our trade desk to discuss strategies suitable for you. 

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 489-491***, 502-506 1/2***

Pivot:  472-476 

Support: 460-464 1/2**

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is the updated look at historical seasonality’s VS today’s prices (black line).

Soybeans

News

  • Friday’s Quarterly Stocks Estimate
    • 242 million bushels
  • With Friday being end of month and end of quarter, that may play a role in price action through the remainder of the week.

Technicals (November)

Soybean futures are continuing to work higher in the early morning trade posting a high of 1313 1/4 in the early morning trade, roughly 30 cents off the lows of the week which were posted on Monday, in our 4-star support pocket from 1280-1285.  The ability to defend support moved our bias from bearish territory into bullish territory.  As mentioned in yesterday’s report, if the Bulls can continue to defend our pivot pocket our next upside objective would be 1322-1328.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance:  1322-1328****, 1350-1355***

Pivot: 1300-1304

Support: 1280-1285****, 1247-1257***

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is an updated look at seasonal averages for November soybeans.  Seasonal tendencies have shown weakness through the back half of September for the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages, illustrated in the chart below.

Wheat

News

  • Friday’s Quarterly Stocks Estimate
    • 1.772 billion bushels
  • With Friday being end of month and end of quarter, that may play a role in price action through the remainder of the week.

Technicals (December)

Wheat futures tested but failed against technical resistance yesterday which we’ve outlined as 595-599 1/2.  That failure has set prices back near our pivot pocket from 585-587.  If the Bulls can achieve a close above that resistance pocket, we would look for a retest of the more signification resistance pocket from 612-616.  That pocket is more of an inflection point for prices, a move above here could spark a bigger short covering rally. 

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 595-599 1/2***, 612-616****

Pivot: 585-587

Support: 570**

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is an updated look at seasonal averages for December Chicago wheat.  We are inching closer to a seasonal low (based on historical tendencies).  Will that play out again this year? TBD.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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