We cover the entire landscape to set up your trading day across E-mini S&P, E-mini NQ, Crude Oil, Gold, and SIlver futures.
E-mini S&P (December) / E-mini NQ (December)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4313.50, down 1.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 14,739.00, up 24.00
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures had a volatile session yesterday, selling off precipitously before rebounding in the final 90 minutes to shift between gains and losses. Yesterday could prove to be the start of a bottoming process with significant volume of 167k contracts trading between 1:30 and 2:00 pm CT. Typically, it is not until the final hour before volume of this magnitude enters the market. For perspective, last Wednesday 198k contracts traded during the first 30 minutes of Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. However, price action failed to build on the move in the overnight, remaining choppy, ultimately within Tuesday’s range. The stage is now set for this morning’s data dump that includes the final Q2 GDP slate and Initial Jobless Claims at 7:30 am CT, before Pending Home Sales at 9:00 am CT, and a 7-year Note auction at noon CT. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks at 8:00 am CT and Fed Governor Cook at noon CT. Then, at 3:00 pm CT, Fed Chair Powell speaks at a town hall.
The range in the E-mini S&P is well-defined this morning with yesterday’s late spike aligning with the opening bell range and previous resistance at 4330.25-4335.50. A move out above here would likely garner the same for the E-mini NQ above its respective resistance at 14,821-14,853. To the downside, the market did not close below rare major four-star support at 4303-4306. Despite the dip below, we still view this level as significant. Furthermore, by holding above here, price action would build out an inverse head and shoulders going back to Tuesday’s low.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 4330.25-4335.50***, 4341-4345.25**, 4354-4356.50***, 4361-4365.25**, 4377.75-4378.75***, 4387.50***
Pivot: 4318-4321.75
Support: 4303-4306****, 4288**, 4274.25-4277**. 4262.75**, 4200-4236.75****
NQ (Dec)
Resistance: 14,784-14,794**, 14,821-14,853***, 14,935-14,956***, 14,978*, 15,001-15,027****
Pivot: 14,739-14,755
Support: 14,666-14,685***, 14,554-14,586***, 14,332-14,385****
Crude Oil (November)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 93.68, up 3.29
Yesterday’s EIA data may not have seemed so bullish, given a headline draw of -2.17 mb of Crude, which was offset by an equal build between the products. However, this headline draw came despite Net Imports jumping by 12.4 mb last week. Furthermore, Crude stocks are now at the lowest level of the year.
The relentless move higher is certainly not something to step in front of, but price action could be in for a breather after trading to the psychological $95 mark overnight. Additionally, yesterday’s settlement was contained within our next resistance pocket 93.62-93.72 which speaks to how technical the tape is. Look for support at 92.43-92.64 to keep the tape buoyant and primed for a rebound back to $95.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 93.62-93.74***, 95.00
Pivot: 93.40
Support: 92.43-92.64***, 91.87**, 91.07-91.33***
Gold (December) / Silver (December)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1919.8, down 16.8
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 23.196, down 0.189
The U.S. 10-year yield hit a fresh high of 4.653%, the highest since October 2007, and a rapid rise of 30bps since last Wednesday’s break above last October’s 4.335%. Treasury futures have been in a freefall, weighing directly on precious metals. Furthermore, given that inflation data for September is expected to remain well anchored at and just below 4%, this means real yields are surging, and this is Gold’s #1 Foe.
All hope is not lost though, as Gold is testing into a critical area of support at 1883.8-1886.9. This aligns a descending support channel with the March low. Silver is also testing into a critical pocket of rare major four-star support held two weeks ago at 22.55-22.72. This is go-time for the bulls; they must show up, and it comes right at the onset of a seasonally bullish time of year. Last year, after weathering the U.K. government debacle and a very weak equity market landscape into the end of Q3, Gold and Silver surged in the final days of September before starting October with a bang. Yes, as yields surged into that aforementioned last October high, Gold and Silver reincurred fresh pressures through October, but a bottom would be proven through this critical turn into Q4.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1900.6**, 1906.9-1908.5***, 1913.6-1916.2***, 1919.8-1921.7***
Pivot: 1896.3-1897
Support: 1883.8-1886.9***, 1867-1871.2***, 1851.8***
Silver (December)
Resistance: 22.93**, 23.06***, 23.19***, 23.29-23.34***
Pivot: 22.81
Support: 22.55-22.72****, 22.30***