Grain markets are quiet in the early morning trade as traders await this morning’s quarterly stocks report from the USDA
Corn
News
- Today’s Average Quarterly Stocks Estimate
- 1.429 billion bushels
- With today being end of month and end of quarter, that may play a role in price action.
- Yesterday’s weekly export sales were reported at 841,800 MT (33,140,192 bushels) for 2023/2024. This was within the range of expectations and above last week’s 566,857 MT.
Technicals (December)
Corn futures made their way back to our 3-star resistance pocket which has neutralized our near-term bias ahead of today’s USDA report. If you had bought near the pivot pocket earlier in the week or last week, you may consider reducing some if not all of that exposure (depending on your own individual bias).
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 489-491***, 502-506 1/2***
Pivot: 472-476
Support:Â 460-464 1/2**
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is the updated look at historical seasonality’s VS today’s prices (black line).
| Soybeans |
- Today’s Quarterly Stocks Estimate
- 242 million bushels
- With today being end of month and end of quarter, that may play a role in price action.
- Yesterday’s weekly export sales were reported at 672,200 MT (24,699,115 bushels) for 2023/2024. This was within the range of estimates and above last week’s 434,065 MT.
Technicals (November)
November soybeans have been mostly sideways this week, trading right along the 100-day moving average and our pivot pocket from 1300-1304. Today’s USDA report may be the catalyst to pop or drop the market. Oure resistance pocket remains intact from 1322-1328. On the support side, we see 1280-1285 as the MUST HOLD pocket for the Bulls. Right smack dab in the middle of those levels and ahead of a USDA report, our bias stands at Neutral.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1322-1328****, 1350-1355***
Pivot: 1300-1304
Support:Â 1280-1285****, 1247-1257***
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is an updated look at seasonal averages for November soybeans. Seasonal tendencies have shown weakness through the back half of September for the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages, illustrated in the chart below.
Wheat
News
- Today’s Quarterly Stocks Estimate
- 1.772 billion bushels
- With today being end of month and end of quarter, that may play a role in price action.
- Yesterday’s weekly export sales were reported at 544,500 MT (20,006,944 bushels) for 2023/2024 were up 77 percent from the previous week and 51 percent from the prior 4-week average. This was above the top end of estimates and above last week’s 307,704 MT.
Technicals (December)
Not much new to say about December wheat futures that hasn’t already been said. The Bulls need to see a close back above $6.00 to have a chance at sparking a more meaningful rally and potentially a seasonal low.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 595-599 1/2***, 612-616****
Pivot: 585-587
Support:Â 570**
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is an updated look at seasonal averages for December Chicago wheat. We are inching closer to a seasonal low (based on historical tendencies). Will that play out again this year? TBD.
