Grain Markets Turn the Page

Research Posts Grain Express

/ by nawadblueline | Leave a comment

Today is the start of a new month and a new quarter, will that help grain outlooks turn more positive?

Corn

News

  • Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Managed Money (aka Funds) were net sellers of 23,791 futures/options contracts through September 26th, expanding their net short position to 168,606 futures/options contracts.  The largest net short position since August of 2020. 

Technicals (December)

Though December corn futures were under “heavy pressure” on Friday, it left prices pretty close to unchanged for the week and the month and did little to change the technical landscape.  If anything, it may have given more credence to the technical levels as resistance held perfectly from 489-491, as did the pivot pocket from 472-476. A breakout above or below these pockets would likely trigger a bigger directional move.  Until then, our bias remains neutral with the idea that there will be plenty of short-term opportunities for market participants on both sides of the market. 

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 489-491***, 502-506 1/2***

Pivot:  472-476 

Support: 460-464 1/2**

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).

Soybeans

News

  • Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Managed Money (aka Funds) were net sellers of 15,774 futures/options contracts through September 26th, shrinking their net long position to 30,058 futures/options contracts.  The smallest net long position since the first week of June.

Technicals (November)

November soybeans broke lower on Friday which has opened the door for continued pressure to start the new month and quarter of trade.  The next support pocket we’ve outlined comes in from 1247-1257.  We’ve been mostly bearish over the last month but would look at this pocket as a potential buying opportunity.  The Bulls need to get back out above 1280-1285 to help neutralize the bearish technical developments from the past month. 

Bias: Neutral

Resistance:  1300-1304***, 1322-1328****

Pivot: 1280-1285 

Support: 1247-1257***

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at seasonal averages VS this year’s price (black line) for November soybeans (updated each Monday).

Wheat

News

  • Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Managed Money holding a net short position of 96,384 futures/options contracts. 

Technicals (December)

Wheat futures got hit hard on Friday, taking prices to new lows and uncharted territory.  We’ve been leaning on the optimistic side of this market, but that has been flat out wrong.  As mentioned multiple times over the last month, options can be a great tool to use when looking for a counter-trend trade. 

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 585-587**, 595-599 1/2***, 612-616****

Pivot: 570 

Support:

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at seasonal averages VS this year’s price (black line) for November soybeans (updated each Monday). 

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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