E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures failed at overhead supply again. The line in the sand for Crude Oil. Can previous metals Gold and Silver) rebound?
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E-mini S&P (December) / E-mini NQ (December)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4324.25, down 1.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 14,984.75, up 118.25
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures were buoyant into the first close of the fourth quarter, anchored by NVDA’s +2.95% after Goldman Sachs added the name to its ‘conviction list’. Those tailwinds dissipated this morning with technical supply at rare major four-star resistance at 15,027 in the E-mini NQ striking for arguably the fifth time in three sessions. Strong overhead resistance has also developed in the E-mini S&P at 4337.50-4341.25, and the tape could not quite get there this morning before slipping. The move lower reestablishes a battle at the 4300 range in the E-mini S&P and at the 14,900 range in the E-mini NQ, highlighted by resistance in the levels below, that has incurred tremendous volume going back to last week. Amid this volatility, the S&P has not closed below what was rare major four-star support and reduced to three-star at 4301-4306. However, a decisive break and close below may be just what the doctor ordered, opening the door to a completion of the correction with a test of 4200-4236.75 and a VIX that pings the 20.0 mark.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 4319*, 4324.25***, 4337.50-4341.25***, 4354-4356.50***, 4361-4365.25**, 4366.25**, 4371.25-4378.75****
Pivot: 4311
Support: 4301-4306***, 4295.50**, 4288**, 4274.25-4280***, 4262.75**, 4200-4236.75****
NQ (Dec)
Resistance: 14,958**, 14,985***, 15,027-15,060****, 15,149-15,157***
Pivot: 14,912
Support: 14,864-14,893**, 14,811-14,840***, 14,747-14,777**, 14,658-14,685***, 14,554-14,586***
Crude Oil (November)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 88.82, down 1.97
Crude oil futures are testing into what has become a floor of major three-star support at 87.88-88.19. Energy has vastly outperformed all other risk-assets, but there is a sense of softening footing with the space. If equity indices were to see continued selling today, it could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back in Crude Oil. If this were the case, a health pullback/correction would test rare major four-star support at 83.01-83.63. However, we have many layers of significant support between here and there with the first coming in at 86.31. To the upside, a move back above 90.79 would neutralize the wave lower and shift momentum back into the bull’s hands.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 89.58-89.77**, 90.35**, 90.79***, 91.18-91.25**, 91.61-91.87***, 92.94-93.24***
Pivot: 88.80
Support: 88.37**, 87.88-88.19***, 86.31***, 85.55**, 84.89-85.02***, 84.25**, 83.01-83.63****
Gold (December) / Silver (December)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1847.2, down 18.9
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 21.421, down 1.029
The beatdown continued overnight in Gold and Silver futures, but we could have seen the start of a bottoming process as each test into the March rally point. Remember, Gold and Silver surged in March as the banking crisis developed and the Fed came to the rescue. But what happened to the banking crisis, did it ever deteriorate further? No, and the Fed is draining this liquidity. It would make sense to see Gold and Silver erase such gains. For Gold, the low on March 10th was 1830, this was where the rally started. For Silver, 20.70-20.80 was the low of that day. These levels were tested overnight, and a bottom is not a point, but a process.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1867-1868.3**, 1871.2-1875.1***, 1878.6**, 1886.9-1888.7***, 1894.8-1896.7****
Pivot: 1855
Support: 1851.8***, 1830-1836.9***, 1813.4-1817.1***, 1796.5-1804.2****
Silver (December)
Resistance: 21.52**, 22.06-22.10**, 22.30***, 22.49-22.64***
Support: 21.17-21.20****, 20.70-20.87**, 20.50****