Are Grains Gearing Up For a Seasonal Low?

Research Posts Grain Express

/ by nawadblueline | Leave a comment

Grain markets are showing some signs of life in the overnight and early morning trade, is a seasonal low coming sooner rather than later?

Corn

News

  • Not a lot of new news this morning as market participants keep a close eye on technicals and money flow. 

Technicals (December)

The corn market was little changed yesterday as it once again bumped its head against resistance from 489-491.  The Bulls want to see a close above this pocket to spur a round of short covering that could take prices back near the psychologically significant $5.00 level.  A failure to get out above resistance likely keeps the market in a nearly 2-month trading range. We continue to believe there are great shorter-term opportunities on both sides of the market but feel the market may be attempting to mark higher lows and higher highs. A close above resistance would confirm that. 

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 489-491***, 502-506 1/2***

Pivot:  472-476 

Support: 460-464 1/2**

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).

Soybeans

News

  • A flash sale was reported yesterday morning: 265,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/2024 marketing year.

Technicals (November)

November soybeans traded into our proprietary 3-star support pocket yesterday which we have had defined as 1247-1257.  In yesterday’s report we wrote: “We believe that will act as pretty strong support on the first test.”.  That pocket did indeed act as strong support and has propelled the market back to our pivot pocket from 1280-1285.  If the market can get over this hurdle we could see the market work back to the technically and psychologically significant $13.00 level. We have moved our short-term bias from outright Neutral into Bullish territory.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance:  1300-1304***, 1322-1328****

Pivot: 1280-1285 

Support: 1247-1257***

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at seasonal averages VS this year’s price (black line) for November soybeans (updated each Monday).

Wheat

News

  • A flash sale was reported yesterday morning: 220,000 metric tons of soft red winter wheat for delivery to China during the 2023/2024 marketing year.

Technicals (December)

December Chicago wheat futures attempted to find some follow-through buying in yesterday’s trade but it was rather lackluster.  That muted momentum has so far led to some overnight and early morning pressure. 

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 585-587**, 595-599 1/2***, 612-616****

Pivot: 570 

Support: 540-541 1/2**

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at seasonal averages VS this year’s price (black line) for November soybeans (updated each Monday).

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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