It’s Groundhog Day yet again as corn futures remain stuck in a range. Soybeans failed against resistance yesterday which has pressured prices back near significant support.
Corn
News
- Yesterday morning flash-sale: Private exporters reported sales of 196,607 metric tons (7,740,073 bushels) of corn for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 109,226 metric tons is for delivery during
- A lot of talk about crude oil selling off sharply yesterday and corn shrugging it off being encouraging. I would make the argument that that would be spinning a narrative as the big rally in oil did little to offer support to corn.
- Weekly export sales will be out at 7:30am CT. The range of estimates are for 1,400,000-2,000,000 metric tons. Last week’s was 841,783 metric tons.
Technicals (December)
It is Groundhog Day yet again for the corn market as prices failed yet again to get out above technical resistance from 489-491. A continued failure against this resistance pocket leaves the door open for a retracement back into the mid 470’s. However, if the Bulls can get over this hurdle near 490, that would likely encourage self-fulfilling momentum higher, likely led by Fund short covering. Bias: Neutral Resistance: 489-491***, 502-506 1/2***Pivot: 472-476 Support: 460-464 1/2**
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
Soybeans
News
Weekly export sales will be out at 7:30am CT. The range of estimates are for 400,000-900,000 metric tons. Last week’s was 672,213 metric tons.
Technicals (November)
Soybeans held support earlier in the week and used that silver lining to retest our pivot pocket in yesterday’s trade, but ultimately failed, neutralizing our short-term bias. The market is now back within arm’s reach of support from 1247-1257. Earlier in the week we mentioned that we had conviction that this pocket would hold on the first test, the second test will have a lot less conviction. Each time a market tests a technical level it generally weakens it. Think of a wrecking ball hitting a tall tower.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1300-1304***, 1322-1328****
Pivot: 1280-1285
Support: 1247-1257***
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at seasonal averages VS this year’s price (black line) for November soybeans (updated each Monday).
Wheat
News
Weekly export sales will be out at 7:30am CT. The range of estimates are for 250,000-600,000 metric tons. Last week’s was 544,539 metric tons.
Technicals (December)
Chicago wheat futures continue to be what the Bulls might call a revolving door of disappointment. A close back above 570 would be a start in righting the ship for a move back towards the mid 580’s and then $6.00. On the support side, 540-541 1/2 is the pocket to keep an eye on.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 585-587**, 595-599 1/2***, 612-616****
Pivot: 570
Support: 540-541 1/2**
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at seasonal averages VS this year’s price (black line) for November soybeans (updated each Monday).
