Longer duration treasuries are catching a bid, and risk assets are rallying. Interest rate expectations and economic data will remain a headwind for risk assets.
Good afternoon, traders. It’s Chris Chavez with the blue line futures and it’s your daily midday market minute. We’re seeing a little bit of relief in the longer end of the treasury yield curve here today. And risk assets are in positive territory. But before we get to it, if you’re watching this video like it, subscribe if you’re on our website, there’s also a link to direct you to YouTube and you can subscribe that way.
We’d love for you to follow us. We’d love for you to help us build our following. Yeah. So we’re seeing some relief in the longer end of the Treasury yield curve here today. It’s providing you know, it’s really fueling a risk asset rally. Stocks are in positive territory. Precious metals are in positive territory as well. Really, the major headwind is still going to be interest rate expectations.
It’s going to still be data as well. We have inflation data this week, PPI tomorrow. We also have CPI on Thursday. As of right now, there’s an 88% probability when looking at the CME Fed watch tool, 88% probability of a pause at the November meeting. So keeping an eye on interest rate expectations is going to be key moving forward.
Data is definitely going to dictate that and we’re going to want to remain nimble. But, you know, when looking at the Nasdaq, when looking at the S&P, bulls are in the driver’s seat right now. I mean, we’re seeing this momentum to the upside. And and we’ve really caught a lot of support. So, you know, looking at the Nasdaq, major, three star resistance is going to be 15 three 5215 392, and we’re right within that resistance pocket right now so we can get above there with some conviction.
I think we still have a lot more upside. You know, the S&P, we’re now above the major 4400 psychological level. So again, bulls are in the driver’s seat. Next level is really going to be 44, 39 to 44, 47. That’s what you’re going to want to pay attention to there. Crude oil, again, you kind of saw that jolt higher with some of this geopolitical risk, some of this geopolitical conflict.
And I think you’re seeing a little bit of capitulation. You’re seeing some profit taking here at the top, especially if you start to see de-escalation with with some of this geopolitical risk. You know, maybe we could see crude oil, you know, sell off a little bit before kind of finding its footing again. There’s no real catalyst right now that’s jolting us higher.
So Major three star support is going to be 80 to 79 to 80 to 98. Looking at gold again, interest rates are going to be the foe here moving forward. So three star resistance is going to be 1875 to 1879. If we can get above there. We’ve already found some nice support here. If we continue to see Treasury yields come off of their highs, I think we can make our room above there and then kind of see how things start to shape out.
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