Grains Consolidate Ahead of USDA Report

Grain Express Research Posts

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Grain markets are mixed in the early morning trade as traders await new news from the USDA.

Corn

News

  • Today’s USDA report is scheduled to be released at 11am CT.  The average analyst estimate for the US corn yield is 173.5 bushels per acre, that would be down from 173.8 in last month’s report.  The average production estimate comes in at 15.121 billion bushels. 

Technicals (December)

December corn futures made new lows for the week in yesterday’s trade but were able to recover and finish the day in positive territory.  The market has been on both sides of unchanged in the overnight and early morning session as Traders await new news from today’s USDA report. 489-491 is the line in the sand to keep a close eye on as it could act as a near term inflection point.  

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance:  502-506 1/2***, 511 1/4**

Pivot: 489-491

Support: 472-476***, 460-464 1/2**

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at historical seasonalities (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). 

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results. 

Soybeans

News

  • Today’s USDA report is scheduled to be released at 11am CT.  The average analyst estimate for the US soybean yield is 49.9 bushels per acre, that would be down from 50.1 in last month’s report.  The average production estimate comes in at 4.134 billion bushels. 
  • Private exporters reported the following sales activity yesterday morning:
    • 121,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/2024 marketing year
    • 213,000 metric tons of soybeans received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2023/2024 marketing year.

Technicals (November)

November soybeans continued to pull back yesterday but have still defended our support pocket from 1247-1257.  This is what we would define as a “MUST HOLD” pocket.  A break and close below could accelerate the selling pressure with little meaningful support until $12.00 and below. 

Bias: Neutral

Resistance:  1300-1308 1/2***, 1322-1328****

Pivot: 1280-1285 

Support: 1247-1257***, 1195-1200**

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at seasonal averages VS this year’s price (black line) for November soybeans (updated each Monday).  

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results. 

Wheat

Technicals (December)

Wheat futures drifted lower yesterday, but it didn’t add to the technical damage that has already been done.  Traders with a Bullish bias will be keeping a close eye on trendline resistance in today’s trade, that comes in near 570.  

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 585-587**, 595-599 1/2***, 612-616****

Pivot: 570 

Support: 540-541 1/2**

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at seasonal averages VS this year’s price (black line) for December wheat (updated each Monday). 

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results. 

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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