Corn, soybeans, and wheat futures all surged higher following yesterday’s Bullish USDA report. Will the rally continue or will it fizzle out like it did last Friday?
Corn
News
- The USDA pegged corn production at 15.064 billion bushels – down 70 million bushels from last month, as a result of a decrease in yields. Before the report, traders’ average estimate for yields was reported at 173.5 bushels per acre (BPA). As such, when USDA reported yields at just 173.0, it came as the first bullish surprise for corn in quite a while. Prices responded accordingly.
- Weekly Export Sales: Net sales of 910,400 MT for 2023/2024 were down 50 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Technicals (December)
Corn futures had an identical trading day to last Thursday, trading within a quarter cent of the high and low from October 5th. Last week the market failed to find any follow-through, will this week be different? The Bulls need to see a close out above 502-506 1/2 to spark another leg higher. A failure to do so could set the market back in to our pivot pocket from 489-491.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 502-506 1/2***, 511 1/4**
Pivot: 489-491
Support:Â 472-476***, 460-464 1/2**
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonalities (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Soybeans
News
- November soybeans were the big winner yesterday – settling 37 ½ cents higher to close at 1290. Like corn, soybean production estimates were lowered 42 million bushels from last month to 4.1 billion bushels as a function of lower yields. Soybean yields came in at 49.6 BPA which compares to USDA’s 50.1 BPA estimate from last month, and pre-report expectations of 49.9 BPA.
- Weekly Export Sales: Net sales of 1,056,800 MT for 2023/2024 were up 31 percent from the previous week and 68 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Technicals (November)
November soybean futures got shot out of a cannon following yesterday’s USDA report. The move out above 1280-1285 sparked additional momentum towards our next resistance pocket 1300-1308 1/2, which remains intact for today’s trade. If the market can chew through this pocket, it could open the door for a run at a cluster of moving averages near 1320, which includes the 50 and 200 day moving averages. 1280-1285 will now act as support.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 1300-1308 1/2***, 1322-1328****
Pivot: 1280-1285
Support:Â 1247-1257***, 1195-1200**
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at seasonal averages VS this year’s price (black line) for November soybeans (updated each Monday).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Wheat
News
- Even though the domestic figures for wheat were not as bullish as corn or soybeans, it tagged right along with some spillover momentum and short covering.
- Weekly Export Sales: Net sales of 652,000 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024–a marketing-year high–were up noticeably from the previous week and up 67 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Technicals (December)
December Chicago wheat futures got the close above 570 which has sparked a move towards our next resistance pocket, 585-587. If the Bulls can clear this hurdle, it could be a greenlight for the Bull camp. With that said, these overnight rallies have been short lived, so you may want to temper the expectations, after all, it is wheat.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 585-587**, 595-599 1/2***, 612-616****
Pivot: 570
Support:Â 540-541 1/2**
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at seasonal averages VS this year’s price (black line) for December wheat (updated each Monday).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
