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Good morning. It’s Tuesday, October 17th, about 6 a.m. Central Time. Overnight, the precious metals are slightly higher after yesterday’s correction. You have gold up $1.19 36. Silver up $0.06. 20 to 84. Copper’s down three at 354 and Platinum’s up two at 901. So some headlines that I’m watching in the precious metals market. One is the volatility in the twos, the fives, the tens and the 30 year treasury yields.
With the ten year Treasury yield had climbed 14 basis points since Monday and really has been the only reason why I believe that gold futures haven’t broken out to the upside and has kept that gold market contained. So some other things that we’re watching here, the news flow out of the Middle East and any kind of indication that this conflict is spreading.
We did see Israel evacuate some of those northern border towns that crossed the border with Lebanon, where there has been some minor rocket fire back and forth. But it’s really the larger picture. Does Iran get involved? And then finally, the last is we’re watching the dollar index, where the latest CME Fed watch tool indicated about a 6% chance that the Fed raises rates in November.
And still a 31% chance that they do raise rates by the end of the year. So we want to keep an eye on the dollar index in any kind of direction we get from here. Now, the dollar index, that critical level support about 105 50 If we break below that, I believe that’ll take it to a neutral trend and we could see a risk on VIBE in the US assets and other commodity markets.
So a couple of things that we’re watching here in today’s session. We do have September retail sales, we have industrial production. We also have earnings from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Johnson and Johnson Bank of America just released while this video was going on reporting stronger than expected earnings growth. So looking at the trends here on gold, still neutral couple levels.
We’re watching critical levels here. The 50 day moving average, 1924, that’s your key level of support. Markets trading 1926. The low last night was 1924. Throw up the 50 day on your chart. Also look at the last three days highs about 1944 got a close above that level in order to shifted from a neutral to a bullish trend.
And then finally, an upside probable target would be that 200 day moving average at 1981. Your key levels of support again, 1924, 1900, the psychological level and then 1871, you do not want to see that gold market cross into that territory as it will most likely be taking a significant rollover to retest those lows. Now, on the silver market, the current trend is still bearish, but you look at some things here, the line in the sand for the support level is going to be $22.
If we break below that level, could be a big wash out in that market. Now, some key levels that we’re watching on a resistance side, the 50 day moving average at 2318. The trend reversal point where it takes it from that bearish trend to neutral is 2336. And then finally the 200 day moving average at 2397. So you look at the outside markets are a bit weaker.
You got U.S. equities under a slight bit of pressure. I believe it’s a little bit of a risk off trade here after yesterday’s big price surge, higher the dollar index up about 13 basis .106 16. Crude oil up $0.22 at 8688. And finally, those ten year Treasury yields up four basis points at 475. You got any questions? Give me a call.
Again, I love to hear from you. Love to hear some of your strategies here, how you’re playing in these markets. I meet a lot of interesting people doing this. So and then remember that futures and options trading does involve risk. Loss may not be suitable to investors. Good luck and good trading.
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