Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate come in worse than expected, sending yields lower and bonds higher. Stocks are in positive territory for the 3rd straight day in November.
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Stocks are continuing to rally off of Treasury yields coming off their highs. So Treasury yields are continuing to slide here today. We got a lot of jobs data this morning, nonfarm payrolls. We also had the unemployment rate and we had average hourly earnings. Looking at average hourly earnings, we came in at 2/10 versus 3/10 month over month.
So still looking like disposable incomes for the consumer are shrinking. Also looking at some of the jobs data, look at non-farm. Got a print of 150,000 versus consensus estimates of 1 to 80. So we’re really seeing some weakness starting to look like it’s trickling through the labor market. Again, the unemployment rate also came in a little weak, 3.9% versus 3.8%.
So, you know, looking at some of that data, it’s definitely why, you know, you’re seeing Treasury yields coming off of their highs here. Again, you know, providing that relief to stock indices here today. You know, the Russell and very interest rate sensitive indices, you know, widely in positive territory. NASDAQ, S&P as well. We’re really going to want to keep an eye on not only the data moving forward, because as the Fed has mentioned, you know, they the risk is just about balance.
They don’t want to, you know, over tighten, but they also don’t want to loosen financial conditions just too soon yet. So the risk is just about weighed. And really, I think the only way you’re going to see another interest rate hike is if we had a radical, loosely hot economic data point, whether that be jobs or inflation numbers, particularly on the inflation front and the Fed’s fight against inflation.
So we’re going to want to keep an eye on the data, but also some of these support and resistance levels to kind of gauge momentum of the market moving forward. Looking at the S&P 4400, it’s going to be a major psychological level. You’re going to want to keep an eye on here moving forward, Breaking close above about 4440 405 definitely is going to signal more upward momentum.
You know, it’s going to show a lot of strength. So that’s definitely what we’re going to want to see to continue to see more strength. NASDAQ 15, 200 or 15 to 42 or so, it’s going to be another major level to keep an eye on. There. Gold has just failed to rally with a lot of the other risk assets.
You know, despite the dollar coming down here today, despite this week, jobs, data, gold is just about doing nothing really. It’s a stick in the mud at this point. And we’re going to want to see a break and close above 2009 or 2012. You look at a chart, you know, these last four or five, you know, ten trading days or so, you know, we’ve like hit a triple top, quadruple top up there.
And we’re going to want to see a break in close above there to see more upside and gold as well. If you have any questions, reach out to our Trade desk. We’re here for you. Remember, futures trading involves substantial risk of loss is not suitable for all investors.
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