Is Relief Rally in Cattle Coming to an End?

Livestock Round Up Research Posts

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Live Cattle

Technicals (December – Z)

December live cattle futures traded on both sides of unchanged on Friday but ultimately finished the day lower.  All in all, there wasn’t any technical damage done though as prices remain stuck in the old gap from October 23rd. If the Bulls can chew through and close above last week’s high, we could see a continuation of the relief rally towards the 50-day moving average, 186.27.  We are leaning towards the Bearish side at these levels.

Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed continue long liquidation with the Managed Money net long position now at 56,402 futures and options contracts, the smallest net long position since last November. 

Resistance: 186.275**

Pivot: 184.625 -185.00 

Support: 182.00-182.50***, 175.85-176.55***

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). 

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results. 

Feeder Cattle

Technicals (January – F)

 January feeder cattle futures had a strong rally on Thursday but fell flat on Friday as the market struggled in our resistance pocket from 242.32-243.05.  This pocket represents the gap from October 23rd.  If the Bulls can chew through and close above this pocket, we could see additional relief propel prices higher.  A failure keeps the Bears in control of the near-term chart. 

Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Managed Money holding a net long position of 735 futures and options contracts, the smallest position since February.  

Resistance: 242.32-243.05***, 244.65**, 246.42

Pivot: 239-240

Support: 233.37-234.95***, 229.00-229.50**

Seasonal Tendencies 

Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results. 

Lean Hogs

Technicals (December – Z)

December lean hog futures rallied up near the 100-day moving average on Friday but fell flat and retreated to finish the day 1.52 lower, which happened to be near the 50-day moving average.  We expect the choppiness to continue which could present some good shorter term opportuniteis on both sides of the market. 

Resistance: 71.92-72.10***, 74.00-74.500***

Pivot: 70.00-70.25 

Support: 67.32-67.80***, 65.40-65.67**

Seasonal Tendencies 

Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results. 

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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