Grains retreat in the overnight and early morning trade, is a bigger correction coming?
Corn
- Yesterday’s crop progress report showed 81% of the US corn crop is harvested.
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 535k metric tons, in line with estimates.
- There was a flash-sale yesterday morning: 289,575 metric tons (11,400,060 bushels) of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2023/2024 marketing year.
Technicals (December)
Corn futures attempted to rally yesterday but fell flat against Friday’s high and the 50-day moving average. That coupled with other outside forces such as weaker Chinese economic data and a stronger US Dollar have led to weakness in the overnight trade. That weakness has brought prices towards the low end of our pivot pocket, 472-476. A failure to defend this pocket could spur another leg lower with the next downside objective coming in from 460-464 1/2.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 484-486***, 499-502 1/2****
Pivot: 472-476
Support: 460-464 1/2**
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Soybeans
- Yesterday’s crop progress report showed 91% of the US soybean crop is harvested.
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 2.085 million metric tons, in line with estimates.
- There was a flash-sale yesterday morning: 126,000 metric tons (4,629,706 bushels) of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/2024 marketing year.
Technicals (January)
Yesterday morning we moved our bias from Bullish territory to outright Neutral as prices were flirting with trendline resistance from the July highs. So far that resistance pocket from 1360-1370 has held. In yesterday’s repot we talked about this pocket being “an opportunity to for longs to reduce exposure and bears to consider expressing that opinion.”. That sentiment holds true for today’s trade. If the Bears can defend resistance, we would look for a pullback to our pivot pocket from 1332-1342 which is was last week’s breakout point.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 1360-1370***, 1383-1390**
Pivot: 1332-1342
Support: 1322 3/4***, 1299 3/4-1303****
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages VS this year’s price (black line) for November soybeans (updated each Monday).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Wheat
Technicals (December)
Chicago wheat futures marked their fourth consecutive higher close yesterday but have so far failed to find any follow through. The lack of continuation overnight is likely on the back of a stronger US Dollar that is weighing on many commodity markets. The 50-day moving average is the hurdle the Bulls want to see prices get out above, that comes in at 580 1/2 today.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 582-585***, 601 3/4-604 1/2***
Pivot: 568 1/2–570
Support: 540-547 1/2***
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages VS this year’s price (black line) for December wheat (updated each Monday).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
