Fed Chair Powell speaks at 1:00 pm CT and there is a 30-year Bond auction at noon CT.
E-mini S&P (December) / E-mini NQ (December)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4399.50, up 3.50
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,386.50, up 12.25
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are doing a terrific job of digesting last week’s breadth thrust higher. The consolidation has created a very tight range of support pockets just below the this morning’s price action and detailed in our levels below. However, the time has come in which the E-mini S&P must breakout above rare major four-star resistance at 4401.75-4404 and we want to see the early trade above here hold through the first hour, in which we would expect it to carry higher. The E-mini NQ has not directly tested its rare major four-star resistance at 15,452-15,468, but the healthy consolidation directly below should be setting the stage for a move through such if the E-mini S&P were able to accomplish the feat through the first hour. A failure to do so today would put both indices in a bit of a predicament ahead of the weekend.
Resistance: 4407.75*, 4447***, 4462.25-4470.25***
Support: 4397-4399**, 4390.75**, 4382.50-4385.75**, 4372.25-4375***, 4364.50**, 4358.25-4361.25***, 4335.75-4337.75***, 4327.50-4331.75**, 4321.75**, 4308.75-4312.75***, 4302.25-4303**, 4293.75-4295.75***
Resistance: 15,402-15,418**, 15,380**, 15,452-15,468****, 15,627-15,673***
Support: 15,303-15,330**, 15,272-15,287**, 15,224-15,258***, 15,138-15,163***, 15,102*, 15,040-15,065**, 14,998-15,017***, 14,952**, 14,846-14,886***, 14,744-14,749****
Crude Oil (December)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 75.33, down 2.04
Crude Oil futures for December closed below the 200-day moving average yesterday for the first time since July 17th. It will be critical how price action treats such a violation into the weekly close. With the indicator coming in at 76.72 today, we see two waves of major three-star resistance overhead at 77.03-77.37 and 77.74. It is likely that a failure at these levels also is a precursor of a failure to hold the 200-dma. For now, volume showed up at 9:30 am CT yesterday (likely algo driven) despite no EIA data, and this creates a pivot and point of balance at 76.33; while above here today it should favor a recovery, and while below, the path of least resistance remains lower.
Resistance: 76.51*, 77.03-77.37***, 77.74***, 78.04-78.22**, 78.74-78.89***, 79.34-79.48**, 80.10-80.51***
Support: 75.33-75.58***, 74.91**, 74.26***
Gold (December) / Silver (December)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1957.8, down 15.7
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 22.728, up 0.139
Gold and Silver futures have been bludgeoned this week, after Gold’s failed rally post-Nonfarm Payroll last Friday built the right shoulder of a head and shoulder pattern. However, we believe the relentless selling this week has run its course and would be surprised not to see a lift both technically and fundamentally. Rare major four-star support aligns with the first leg of Gold’s October rally at 1944.7-1950.6 and the bulls must defend this pocket. Furthermore, as geopolitics in the Middle East broaden, and economic data in the U.S. shows some signs of slowing, it would be surprising to not see a bid ahead of the weekend.
Resistance: 1862.8-1865.1***, 1975.5-1978.2***, 1982.8**, 1986.3-1988.6***
Support: 1944.7-1950.6****, 1935.7-1935.9**, 1921.2-1924.6***, 1913.6-1915.2***
Resistance: 22.71-22.74**, 22.87**, 22.93-22.98***, 23.23-23.25***
Support: 22.50-22.53***, 22.36-22.39***, 21.72-22.01****