Good morning. It’s Friday, November 10th, about 5:30 a.m. Central Time. Overnight, the precious metals continue to decline. Summer gold’s down $14, 1955, some silver down $0.34 to 56. Summer copper down two at 3.61. And January, platinum down 11.8 51. So yesterday, Jerome Powell, he really changed his tune, indicating that the Fed is not confident it has done enough to bring down inflation.
Now, the question is this all bark and no bite? Let’s be serious here. The economic data recently has declined. Credit has been tightening. Carney raised one more time. Sure, but what’s he really going to accomplish? If you look at the interest rate hike expectations from the CMS Fed Watch tool you go one week ago was 4.8%. You go to yesterday for 14.6%.
Now in the overnight session, it’s come back down. So today’s interest rate hike expectation is closer to 9.8%. If you look farther Ruto across the curve into 2024, there’s a 60% chance that the Fed will have made its first rate cut by June. And ultimately, at the end of 2024, interest rates will sit at 4.55%. Currently, right now, there are about five and a quarter, so we would come down about 75 basis points.
So, you know, we’re going to see we will have some more economic data come out here today just a little bit. University of Michigan releases its preliminary consumer sentiment index for November. So it’s not a widely watched number, but it is a meaningful number. So we will see a little bit of market volatility here. Now, other things that we’re checking out, looking at the current trends here on gold, it is bullish, but it has been fading.
Remember, we never got over 2020. That was the line in the sand to continue this bullish momentum. We haven’t really seen that escalation or that widespread hitting of the war in the Middle East, you know, where it’s bringing in other regions and things like that. Sure, there’s been some missiles lobbed between Lebanon, which is really Hezbollah, you know, in Israel.
And we’ve seen the U.S. conduct airstrikes in Syria, but these have been targeted and called self-defense measures. Now, if you look at the support levels of gold, 1950, kind of your critical support here, because when we start breaking down there, we’re going to start to test some key levels. We’re going to test the 50 day moving average, 1944, and the trend reversal point, which will take it back to a neutral trend at 1936, your resistance points above 1983 to the upside.
That’s going to be the 200 day moving average psychological number, 2020 20. Of course. Now, I think a lot of the traders that were in this market that caught that move up had rotated into other asset classes. They’ve also come out of the crude oil market as that has declined over about the last three days, about 7%. They’ve gone into the Nasdaq, which has had an incredible rally from those recent lows.
It’s starting to fade right now. So they might rotate back again out of that. But I really think they’re finding quite a bit of comfort in that movement up on Bitcoin. And also, Etherium, Bitcoin up another $500 here this morning, trading over 37,000. So that’s quite, quite shocking. If you look at the silver market, the trend is neutral.
Your critical levels of support, 20 to 50. 20 to 40. And also, that’s going to be your trend reversal point. You got a lot of overhead resistance here you yet the 50 day moving average 2289 and more trading right around 2253 as it is number you also have the trend reversal point 2343. That’s to capture a bullish trend.
So it seems like it’s leaning here sideways to lower in the trend is really been fading out. Now if you look at the outside, markets are mixed. You got the Dow up 21, the Nasdaq is down 39. Crude oil is up $0.78. I really think Saudi Arabia not happy with the way prices are going, especially coming into the end of the year.
Their objective is to get prices north of $85. So they might continue to indicate that they’re going to make further cuts. What the knife in the back of the crude oil market was, we saw Venezuela. We had sanctions lifted on them. They’re putting about 850,000 extra barrels of crude oil out a day. They’re selling that directly to China.
China is reducing what it’s buying from the Middle East and prices are simmering down on that. So you look at other markets, your dollar index down 31.5, 75, and then also ten year Treasury yields up 14.68. The two year yield up 14.96. So that USDA report bearish across the board on all the grain markets, they’re starting to work their way lower.
I think really the support level on the corn between four 5460 and soybeans between 1320 and $13 and then wheat is just shown just feeding off again needs really some geopolitical news in order to get things going, especially over in Russia. Great questions. Going to be fish in here in the afternoon, but I’m going to be in the bay, so I will be able to receive phone calls, place trades, things like that.
No problem at all. And then I want to give you guys, you know, a happy Veterans Day here this weekend. You know, we salute all you guys that have done so much for this country. If you have any questions, give me a call. 3128587303. Remember, futures option trading involves risk of loss may not be suitable to investors. Good luck and good trading.
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