Phillip Streible, Chief Market Strategist*** Auto transcribed***
Good morning. It’s Tuesday, November 14th, buttocks m Central Time. Overnight, the precious metals are mixed after yesterday’s reversal. Higher December gold unchanged at 1950. Summer silver up $0.03 20 to 39. Summer copper unchanged at 3.66 in January. Platinum up seven at 870. So here’s the chain reaction of yesterday’s trade, because if you’re watching, it was a big reversal higher in a lot of the different commodities and a lot of the precious metals.
It was OPEC’s monthly report. It eased worries about weakening demand. The discussion was about China’s recent weaker demand being just destocking and market participants interpret this as China’s demand is being understated. So other commodities that are centrally related to China start to react. We saw copper rally significantly. Platinum followed, palladium followed. After that, the US dollar goes negative on the day.
Ten year Treasury yields in two years ease a bit and then the bargain hunters come in when they see silver dipping below $22. That snaps back in in the gold market. Follow suit. So that leads us into today. Today is a big inflection point and I believe the rest of the week will carry a significant amount of volatility.
We have CPI data coming. Our most analysts expectations are the year over year number at 3.3%, the core at 4.1 in the month over month at 0.3%. They’re going to indicate that it’s flat but sticky. I always saw two third party research firms come out with much higher projections, like 3.51%. If we get something like that, it’s going to be a big rug pull on a lot of these markets.
You’re going to see you’re going to want to check the the FOMC CME’s Fed watch tool right after the number, see where that lands, because that’ll give us the roadmap to what the December 13 FOMC meeting is. If we see something like that 3.5 number, you’re going to see those expectations jump up probably into the 40%, maybe even 5050 at this point.
So where that leaves us on the markets and the technicals, you look at the gold market, it is bullish, but it’s just barely hanging on. Remember, we shot up, we couldn’t get through the 2020. We broke below 2000. We broke below the 200 day moving average a lot of the funds, a lot of the momentum traders switched to other commodities chasing Bitcoin, chasing the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, which makes sense because of the recent rally.
And they just want to be in there for the momentum type trade. Now, your key levels of support on the gold market is going to be 1983, which is or I’m sorry, 1938, which is the 50 day moving average down in 1936. That’s your trend reversal point. We close below their mark. It’s going to go neutral trend. Now, the silver market triggered a bearish trend about two days ago, but it comes with a red flag because when you see that that bearish trigger occur, you want to see further selling the next session.
The reality is, is when silver gets down from about $22 down to about $20, you start to see long term bargain hunters come in and start to allocate towards our portfolios. Call those the dollar cost average type people. So your resistance is going to be 2281. That’s the 50 day moving average. The 2379 is going to be your 200 day moving average and your support again is that 22 down to 2195.
So the outside markets, they’re flat right now. They’re pretty calm. I think they’re holding their breath coming in in this number. You’ve got crude oil down $0.13, 7813, the dollar index down 6105 44 grains taking a bit of a breather after yesterday’s explosive move. You know, you look at all the precious metals are flat right now, two year treasuries down one basis point for 97 and the ten year down one basis point of 462.
So you get any questions, give me a call. It’s going to be volatile, so be sure to tune in at that. About an hour and a half from now, the 7:30 a.m. Central number and, you know, hold your breath here. So you got any questions? Give me a call. 312858, seven, three and three. Remember, futures option trading involves riskless may not be suitable to investors.
Good luck and good trading.
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