Good morning. It’s Wednesday, November 15th, about 6 a.m. Central Time. Overnight, the precious metals are higher after yesterday’s explosive rally. We’ve got December gold up $10, 1977, some silver up $0.35, 2350. Some are copper up two at 3.71 and January, platinum up four at 897. So clearly the weaker CPI print and a technical breakdown in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields was the primary force behind yesterday’s explosive move.
Now, if you get the first interest rate cut, it’s been pulled forward from June to May. If you look at this CME Fed watch tool, it is a 99.7% chance that the Fed leaves rates unchanged at the December meeting. At one point yesterday after the number came out, there was actually projection for an interest rate cut at the next meeting.
I think that’s a little too soon to tell. There’s still quite a bit of data. You do have PBI today. You also have retail sales. Now, retail sales are predicting that we do see a decline. They state that the current state of the consumer has been stressed due to these higher interest rates, not only on their credit cards, their housing, and also if you look at used car sales and new car sales, they’re falling quite precipitously.
So looking at the current trend and critical levels that we’re watching, the current trend on gold is still bullish. It it got to a key level here yesterday where we saw those markets down into the 1940s, 1930s, the 1940s is your 50 day moving average And then also your trend reversal point is 1936. We’re up against your resistance level right now at 1983, which is the 200 day moving average.
It would be nice to see it close above it threatened 2000 again, go after 2020 as well. But we’ll see. We probably need some more news, a lot weaker data. We need an escalation over in the Middle East. And then you could probably see 2020 be achieved sooner rather than later. We do come into a period of time where a lot of investors start to look over their portfolios and reallocate funds, especially around the new year.
So that could also act as a tailwind for the precious metals. Now, if you look at silver, it did trigger a bearish trend about two days ago. But if you watch yesterday’s video, I stated that it’s a red flag because of the fact that a locked any kind of follow through to the downside. So if you look at your critical levels of resistance, it’s going to be 2378, which is the 200 day moving average.
That’s really the level you want to see it go through. Then we could start attacking 24, 24, 30. Some of these headwinds that we’ve seen just previously, looking at your support level, it’s going to be right at that $22 down about 2195. It’s pocket support. So we welcome the volatility as long as the volatility is in our direction.
Now, look at the outside markets dollar index. It was bludgeoned yesterday. It’s up 12 points, 104. You’ve got crude oil futures quite disappointing, down $0.37 at 77, 89. I really thought at one point we were turning the tides and pushing higher, but it was really the ARB in heating oil which pulled back and it was a bit of a dagger in that market.
Other markets that we’re looking at, you’ve got two year Treasury yields up two basis points and also ten year Treasury yields up two basis points for 47 last. So getting questions, give me a call 312858733. Remember futures options, trading of all trades glass made up symbol to investors. Good luck and good trading.
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