Bill Baruch will be back at the NYSE to join the CNBC Halftime Report for the hour at 11:00 am CT. Do not miss it!
Click Here for the Economic Calendar
- Initial Jobless Claims are due at 7:30 am CT, along with fresh November Philly Fed Manufacturing, and followed by Industrial Production at 8:15 am CT.
- Fed speak; NY Fed President Williams speaks at 8:25 am CT, Fed Governor Kroszner at 9:00 am CT, Fed Governor Waller at 9:30 am CT, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr at 9:35 am CT, Fed Governor Cook at 11:00 am CT, and Cleveland Fed President Mester at 11:00 am CT.
E-mini S&P (December) / E-mini NQ (December)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4519.25, up 8.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,889.25, up 9.50
Reiterating the same point from yesterday. E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are digesting gains, and continuing to do so in a healthy manner. It is worth noting that the E-mini NQ did achieve rare major four-star resistance 16,018-16,063. A healthy consolidation should pave the way for higher prices; be smart, do not chase, but there is no reason not to be anything but Bullish while price action in the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures holds above our first two waves of support, detailed below. Jobless Claims and Fed speak incoming. Currently, the CME’s FedWatch Tool signals a 100% probability the Fed will keep rates unchanged into March, where there is a 28% probability they cut by 25bps. While easing is welcome, we have a slight concern the market is getting ahead of itself in pricing cuts.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 4540.50-4541.25**, 4555****, 4566-4569.75**, 4597.50***, 4653****
Pivot: 4519.50
Support: 4508-4511***, 4498-4503***, 4490.25**, 4462.25-4470.25**, 4447**, 4425.25-4430.50****, 4419.25-4420.25**, 4407.25-4409.50***
NQ (Dec)
Resistance: 15,906-15,918**, 16,018-16,063****, 16,159****, 16,265-16,275****
Pivot: 15,856
Support: 15,832**, 15,790***, 15,719-15,732***, 15,588-15,612***, 15,547-15,552****, 15,453-15,468***
Crude Oil (January)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 76.79, down 1.38
Brent Crude Oil is retesting $80; OPEC+ jawboning becomes more likely when below this level. JPMorgan noted early this morning that OPEC+ may surprise with deeper supply cuts. Options on December WTI Crude Oil futures expire today at 1:30 pm CT. While the expiration of December Crude options and then futures can, at times, keep a market contained, it opens the door for more volatility thereafter. If strong support in the $75 region holds, we can imagine a repositioning of longs.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 77.05-77.28***, 77.80-78.19***, 78.52-78.62**, 79.06**, 79.83-80.23****
Pivot: 76.72
Support: 76.03-76.19***, 74.92-75.36***
Gold (December) / Silver (December)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1964.3, down 2.2
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 23.538, up 0.406
While Gold futures have consolidated at and below Tuesday’s CPI surge, Silver has extended its range into a critical area of rare major four-star support that aligns previous highs, the 50% retracement back to the May high, and the 200-day moving average. On Monday, the Gold-Silver ratio hit its highest since March and improved significantly over the last two sessions. If this is the beginning of a cycle shift, Silver must break out above overhead resistance which then paves the way for tremendous outperformance.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 1969.8-1971.5**, 1977.6-1978.2***, 1987.6-1988.6***, 1999.2-2000.1***
Pivot: 1964.4-1966.5
Support: 1958.8**, 1949.8-1953.5***, 1935.6-1938.8****
Silver (December)
Resistance: 23.75-23.91****, 24.56-24.63***
Pivot: 23.53
Support: 23.35-23.41**, 23.25**, 23.04-23.14***, 22.81-22.90***
