As Stocks Retreat, Will Metals Repeat?

Morning Express Research Posts

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E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are retreating to support this morning, will it hold? Gold and Silver are trying to breakout, but there is reason to be cautious. Check out that along with actionable ideas for Crude Oil in today’s Morning Express.

E-mini S&P (December) / E-mini NQ (December)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4561.00, down 7.25

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 16,008.75, down 12.25

Although the trend remains Bullish, the E-mini S&P dipped below major three-star support this morning. One outcome would be a failure to regain this level within the first hour of trade, which could encourage a consolidation lower to 4524.50-4527.50. The other outcome is a steady trade above 4551.25-4555 through the first hour, encouraging additional buyers to step in. In the case of the latter, price action must clear yesterday’s high in order to open the door to higher prices. As for the E-mini NQ, we see a similar path of support, however, to the upside it must close out above rare major four-star support at 16,159-16,173 to lay the groundwork for the next leg higher.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 4561-4563**, 4567.25-4570***, 4575.50-4580.50**, 4597.50***, 4653****

Pivot: 4551.25-4555***

Support: 4537.75-4541.25**, 4524.50-4527.50***, 4512.75-4514.25***, 4498-4503***, 4490.25**, 4462.25-4470.25**, 4447**, 4425.25-4430.50****, 4419.25-4420.25**, 4407.25-4409.50***

NQ (Dec)

Resistance: 16,047-16,053**, 16,089-16,117**, 16,159-16,173****, 16,265-16,275****

Pivot: 16,000

Support: 15,937-15,942**, 15,894-15,917***, 15,825-15,832**, 15,790***, 15,719-15,732***, 15,588-15,612***, 15,547-15,552****, 15,453-15,468***

Crude Oil (January)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 74.86, down 0.68

Crude Oil futures have struggled to extend gains with strong resistance into $77 withstanding waves of buying. Although this has led to a streak of lower highs, there has also been a constructive streak of higher lows. We all know what this means, a move is coming. Given the two most significant volume days over the last week have been associated with swing bottoms, we tend to think price action is attempting to round out a bottom. However, Crude Oil must chew through the $77 mark and major three-star resistance at 77.80-78.19 before closing above major three-star resistance at 79.20-79.65 and ultimately neutralizing the November 7th breakdown.           

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 76.01-76.28**, 76.85-77.12***, 77.80-78.19***, 78.39-78.46**, 79.20-79.65***, 80.10-80.23***

Pivot: 75.30

Support: 74.73**, 73.66-74.05****, 72.91-73.09***, 72.31-72.47***, 70.00-70.69***

Gold (February) / Silver (March)

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2012.4, up 9.4

Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 25.038, up 0.346

Options on Gold and Silver futures for December expired yesterday and this theoretically could lift the ceiling and allow for higher prices given the difficulties over the last month and a half December Gold had from $2000-2020. While Gold is making a new swing high this morning, we will look for confirmation from Silver which led the few trading sessions. It would be concerning if Silver cannot take out yesterday’s swing high. Furthermore, the December futures roll off the board through tomorrow and like every expiration date this year, due to higher interest rates and cost to carry, there is approximately a $20 spread from December to the now front month February Gold contract and a 0.35 spread from the December to now front month Silver contract. The problem is this higher roll spread has seemingly deterred momentum buying into month-end spread rolls. Therefore, while encouraging to see higher prices, we are taking it with a grain of salt and using such to monetize the move as we look to the end of the week data dump (Nonfarm Payrolls).

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 2047-2052.9***, 2057.5-2060**, 2067-2070**, 2097.1****

Pivot: 2035

Support: 2026.5-2029.7***, 2023.3-2023.9***, 2013.2-2015.5**, 2000.4****

Silver (December)

Resistance: 25.23-25.29***, 25.50-25.57***, 25.70-25.78****, 26.09-26.10***

Pivot: 25.05

Support: 24.89****, 24.69-24.72***, 24.50-24.56**, 23.96-24.03***, 2343-23.46***

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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