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Good morning. It’s Thursday, November 30th, about 6 a.m. Central Time. All right. The precious metals are weaker after yesterday’s flat session. Your February gold down $10 at 2056. Mark Silver down $0.02, 2542. March Copper unchanged at 382 and January. Platinum unchanged at 942. So usually on the last day of the month, what I do is I look at the month to day performance on the precious metals.
You got silver up 9%, copper up 3.6%, gold up 2% and platinum unchanged. So a big boost up in the precious metals. It was fueled by weaker treasury yields and also a weaker dollar index. Now, if you look at the overnight news and the reason why we’re pulling back here on the precious metals was that the eurozone inflation, it fell more than expected at 2.4%.
So what that does is we see the euro, euro currency. That’s about it’s down about 0.6%. So we’re at 123 last on it. Remember, there’s a 57% inverse correlation between the dollar index in the euro currency. So the dollar index up about a half a percent right now at 103, 24 and a half, weighing in on the precious metals and also the agricultural markets.
Anything that would would benefit from exports is going to go down on that as a dollar index goes up. The cost of converting currencies to get some of those exports goes up. So that’s why the grains most likely lower here today. We do have an OPEC meeting coming out. You are seeing crude oil futures up about a half a percent right now, getting a small boost on that market.
Now, some other things that we’re watching, Fed officials, they continue to provide little urgency for raising interest rates going forward. So we’ve seen several more are coming out and where they were very hawkish before. Now they’re kind of at the wait and see. They think that they like the way that inflation has been coming down naturally. They don’t really see much of a need to continue to raise rates.
Now, today’s PC inflation data, that should be the nail in the coffin ceiling that the last interest rate hike had already passed. And we’re going to look forward towards interest rate cuts going forward. So you do have initial claims coming out. You’d like to see a modest uptick in that. If you’re a bull here, if you want to get the gold market on change, personal income, personal spending and home sales pending home sales are all coming out.
Look at it, the precious metals. So my view is that I believe that we’re a little bit overextended on these. I don’t necessarily see much value given the roll over from the December to the February contract. Having 25 $30 differential between the two I think is a bit too high. So if you look at your key level support, 200 day moving average, also your trend reversal point right around 2002.
I see value between 2010 and about 1996 and the February gold contract. Your key level support below, that’s going to be the 50 day moving average at 1971. Silver. Similar situation I think your critical level support 25 bucks. I think I see value right around the 200 day moving average at 2415 and then below that would be 2361 down to about 2340.
Next, your pocket support, 50 day moving average down to try and reversal points. So outside markets, they are mixed because of that dollar index going up. You do have U.S. equities boosting up a bit. There was some news at Salesforce up about 9%. I believe that’s what’s helping out the Nasdaq right now. Volatile ride in the bitcoin market.
Also, again, your grains a little bit weaker. Your ten year Treasury yields up three basis points at 429 here last yeti questions, give me a call 3128587303. Remember, futures option trading involves risk class may not be suitable to investors. Good luck and good trading.
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