The Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, and Nonfarm payrolls all come in better than estimates. Michigan consumer sentiment is strong, and 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations are lower. Crude catches a bid, while stocks battle positive territory.
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Good afternoon, traders. It’s Chris Chavez with Blue Line Futures and it’s the daily Midday Market Minute. We got some better than expected jobs data here this morning. Treasury yields are higher and stocks are battling positive territory. But before we get to it, if you’re watching this video like it, subscribe if you’re on our website. There’s also a link to direct you to YouTube and you can subscribe that way.
We would love for you to follow us. We would love for you to help us build our following. Yeah. So the unemployment rate came in at 3.7%, 3.9%. Were estimates better than expected? Average hourly earnings month over month. 4/10 increase versus 3/10 expected. And nonfarm payrolls, we got 199,000 jobs added in the month of November versus 180 expected.
So you’re really seeing, you know, kind of a Goldilocks week, right? We saw jolts in the earlier part of the week at the lowest level since, you know, the second quarter of 2021. And you’re seeing these job creation numbers still better. So job openings, you know, might start to show a little bit of weakness. I’m not really seeing too many jobs out there.
But, you know, consumers are still getting paid. You know, we’re still seeing in the unemployment unemployment rate low, the labor market is still relatively tight. And there seems to be that perfect Goldilocks scenario that the Fed is maybe looking for to, you know, see that we’re kind of entering this soft landing and maybe we can see, you know, a rate cut as soon as May.
When you look at the CME Fed watch tool earlier this week, we saw expectations of 65% chance of a cut in March. Now, when you look at to see me Fed Watch told today after the data that we got this morning those chances have been cut quite, quite drastically. Now, a 45% chance of a cut in March. So markets aren’t really to convinced now that we’re going to see a cut as soon as the March meeting, we’ll get some of the Michigan data.
You know, consumer sentiment came in way above estimates as well, one year and five year inflation expectations below estimates as well. So really just a great day here for for, you know, jobs data, great day for the markets. Stocks are battling positive territory probably because the move that we’re seeing in yields and the shift in interest rate expectations for gold and silver really getting slammed here today.
But of course, gold and silver as a flight to safety asset class. You know, responding to this jobs data here today, you’re seeing some profits definitely getting taken here. Now, some of these major levels to keep an eye on, you know, especially when looking at the S&P three star support, 45, 52 to 45, 55, NASDAQ to star. That’s not a significant but important level You want to keep an eye on 1930 to 1935, Gold three star support is going to be 2019 at 2023.
Now we’re kind of trading right around that range right here, right now as I’m making this video. So a break and close below there could see a little bit more liquidation to retest psychologically significant $2,000 handle and crude oil seeing a nice pop here today. Again, the big narrative for crude has been growing. Economic growth concerns a weaker consumer.
The data here today was the exact opposite, right? Better than expected jobs data, consumers feeling pretty good about inflation. Sentiment is high, crude oil is popping. So, you know, we’re really going to want to pay attention to major resistance, three star resistance going to be 7217 to 72, 32. Now, if you have any questions, reach out to our trade desk.
We’re here for you.
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