Actionable ideas for E-mini S&P, E-mini NQ, Crude Oil, Gold, and Silver (futures).
U.S. CPI for November is due at 7:30 am CT and expectations are for:
- Core CPI at +0.3% m/m, up from +0.2 in October, and 4.0% y/y, flat from October.
- Headline CPI unchanged m/m, flat from October, and 3.1% y/y, down from 3.2% in October.
The U.S. Treasury will auction $21 billion 30-year Bonds at noon CT.
E-mini S&P (March) / E-mini NQ (March)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4678.50, 18.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 16,450.00, up 141.25
We roll index futures on the Tuesday of witching week, and doing so secures the E-mini S&P futures at the highest level since January 13, 2022 and the E-mini NQ futures at the highest since January 4, 2022. Today’s U.S. CPI report will be critical in helping maintain this bullish momentum or rejecting it. Ultimately, given the roll premium, we would not be surprised to see some back-and-fill as the week plays out through data and tomorrow’s Federal Reserve policy decision, even if the final direction is higher. Previous 52-week highs align to create major three-star support in the E-mini S&P at 4626.75-2634 and in the E-mini NQ at 16,199-16.265; holding out above here as the week unfolds will be very bullish. However, we cannot ignore gap resistance in the March-only E-mini S&P at 4707.25, and this brings rare major four-star resistance.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 4707.25****, 4720**, 4733-4738.50***
Support: 4659.25-4662***, 4645-4648.50**, 4626.75-4634***, 4614.25**, 4601.25-4607.50***,
NQ (Dec)
Resistance: 15,564-16,575***, 16,659**, 16,767****
Pivot: 16,410-16,436
Support: 16,320-16,322***, 16,199-16,265***, 16,153-16,173***, 16,098****, 15,985***
Crude Oil (January)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 71.32, up 0.09
The technical pattern is becoming clearer in Crude Oil futures. Although we are very upbeat for Q1, the inability to close back above major three-star resistance at 72.17-72.37 to begin repair has unfolded the chart into a bear-flag-like pattern, and a close back below major three-star support at 69.34-69.53 is negative in the near-term.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 71.69-71.80**, 72.17-72.37***
Pivot: 71.35
Support: 70.38-70.61**, 70.00**, 69.34-69.53***, 68.80-69.11**, 67.05-67.45***
Gold (February) / Silver (March)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1993.7, down 20.8
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 23.058, down 0.218
Gold and Silver futures are seeing some relief ahead of today’s U.S. CPI report. The tape has been bludgeoned since last Monday’s sharp reversal. Yesterday’s low volume bleed does highlight a potential near-term bottom, given it signals all sellers have sold unless a fresh catalyst arrives, such as CPI or tomorrow’s Fed decision. Regardless, Gold and Silver must clear significant levels of resistance in order to begin repair, this starts with major three-star resistance in Gold at 2031.3-2036.6 and closely tied levels in Silver at 23.54-23.61 and then 23.75-23.78.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 2010.6**, 2018.5-2019.7**, 2023.5**, 2031.3-2036.6***
Support: 1993.7-1997.4***, 1987.3**, 1979** 1957.7-1960.8***
Silver (March)
Resistance: 23.40-23.46**, 23.54-23.61***, 23.75-23.78***
Pivot: 23.15
Support: 23.01-23.06***, 22.70-22.72**, 22.50-22.62***, 22.29-22.39***
