Inflation for the month of November comes in slightly above expectations, yet the Dow Jones and Nasdaq are trying to push higher. 21 Billion in 30 Year Bods will be auctioned at 12 CST.
TRANSCRIPT
Good afternoon, traders. It’s Chris Chavez with Blue Line Futures and it’s your daily midday market minute. We got some inflation data here this morning. The Nasdaq, the Dow Jones are trying to push higher. But before we get to it, if you’re watching this video like it, subscribe if you’re on our website. There’s also a link to direct you to YouTube and you can subscribe that way.
We would love for you to follow us. We would love for you to help us build our following. We got some inflation data here this morning. Core CPI did come in at expectations when looking at CPI. The year over year number also came in at expectations. There is a slight increase month over month. We got a 1/10 increase versus an estimate of no inflation of 0%.
Now, when you’re looking at the report today, we are seeing, you know, treasuries, you know, positive here in positive territory. Yields are just a bit lower. Nasdaq, Dow Jones are trying to push higher, even though the inflation number came in above estimates on that month over month number. I think really the reason you’re seeing that is because the tail risk of inflation, the volatility that we’ve seen this year from some of the earlier months, you know, an increase of 4/10 and then 6/10 and then back down to 2/10, you’re not really seeing this volatility, inflation.
It looks like we’re consistently suppressed here with that 0% increase in November for October’s inflation and with this 1/10 increase here with today’s report. So tomorrow we’re going to get PPE again, major headwind to producer prices, energy prices. So I imagine we would get a number that at least comes in in line with expectations, if not lower. We’re also going to get the Fed’s interest rate decision summary of economic projections as well.
Today, $21 billion of new 30 year bond issuance coming to market is going to be really important for, you know, the demand side of things. You really want to see that come through. We could see a little bit of weakness in treasuries if not and some of the other macro risk assets, you know, the S&P, the NASDAQ and the Dow now looking at some of these major support and resistance levels.
The S&P for star resistance, 4707 and a quarter, that’s on the March contract. Nasdaq mar contract, three star resistance. It’s going to be 65, 64 to 65, 75 looking at crude oil, seeing more weakness here today. You know, we’re going to want to maintain three star support, major three star support, 6745. You’re breaking close below there we can retrace Dak back down to, you know, 65 bucks.
Now, looking at gold major, you know, support is going to be 1993 to 1997. We want to sustain that. Again, tomorrow’s headwinds are going to be really important. Looking at the CME Fed watch tool right now, pricing in about a 42% chance of a cut in March. That’s up from yesterday’s 38% chance. And looking at the May interest rate cut, 78%, 78% chance of a cut in May, down about a percent from yesterday’s expectations.
So starting to see things still get repriced a little bit. If you have any questions, reach out to our trade desk. We’re here for you. Remember, futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.