Phil Streible with Blue Line Futures discusses Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum, and other commodity topics.
Phillip Streible, Chief Market Strategist
AUTO-TRANSCRIBED
It’s December, 14, about 6 a.m. Central Time overnight. The precious metals, not a lot of external action post FOMC. So note that but you have February gold up $52 at 2049 March silver up a dollar 3724 to 30, March copper up ten. That one did extend higher in the overnight session at 389 and then January platinum up 27 at 949.
So clearly the global markets had just caught fire. Basically, everything on the post FOMC rally. Here it was the dot plot that indicated three rate cuts could occur in 2024. That’s the first time we saw that kind of action here. The Fed has been really holding strong on this higher for longer. And I don’t blame them because employment is very strong.
You saw we saw the unemployment rate ticked down from 3.9 to 3.7. We saw that November jobs number beat the expectations, 180 come out of 199. Services PMI is continuing to expand for 11 straight months. We are getting the reprieve on inflation where like the national average for gas is down to 320. Mortgage rates have dropped six weeks in a row.
The also fell off a cliff here yesterday. So this is just kind of a big risk on trade right now that we’re seeing. Now, if the Fed goes in, starts to backpedal, which we have to look at what the data that’s coming out, could it potentially be stronger in what are the next Fed discussions? Will Jerome Powell have any kind of speeches or things like that?
And then something else we have to pay attention to that a lot of people don’t. Is that when you get a new calendar year, you get a shift in who are the key voting members for the for the Federal Reserve. If those rotate in where it’s more of these hawkish people, you’ve got to pay attention to that. If some of the doves come out and the hawks come in, they hold higher for longer.
That could have been, you know, we could see another top on the precious metal. So I don’t want to be a Debbie Downer or anything. I think this is great. This is a great opportunity for people to reduce a bit. I don’t think prices have gone up or not in 21, 52. So we’re not making all time highs where people have the FOMO.
I think they could tactically look at, hey, what levels would I want to reenter into the market? I don’t think silver is too high. Even up a dollar 36 were trading at 2430. We’re not at 26, $27. I think those are kind of the upper and upper end of the boundaries without a new all time high in gold, without an expansion of a global conflict.
So that’s kind of just some rambling thoughts here. So everything kind of moving up here. Dollar index down 56. Oil’s up a dollar 25. Oil’s probably going to bounce to a higher low, I think 73, 74 on that. I do like platinum. I don’t know if it justifies move to a thousand of platinum generally drifts higher here into the end of the year, carries over some support into January three.
If you want some information on the seasonal, shoot me a call on that one. And then silver it tends to draft too. We see silver tend to peak in January comes down a bit. And then on the gold market, usually around the first week of the new year, it tends to peak. These are just some of the things, but not really given the the current stance on what happened with the Fed.
Now something to note on the equity side. So we are making new we’re close to our new all time highs that a lot of them some of them are making new all time highs. You got to shift focus when the Fed starts cutting. Small caps are the ones that usually perform the best. So that’s where the Russell where we were always targeting the Russell on the short side try to be long Nasdaq.
Now you want to kind of reposition just a little bit. And the other thing, part of this risk off or this risk on rally is you have a lot of people that lock their money up at 5% yielding money markets and CDs. Now, the equities are taken off. Those money markets are going to come down. And the the yields that they’re given, that money’s got to go to work somewhere.
Chances are it’s going back on in the market. So you get any questions, give me a call up and talk to you at three. 12858733. Remember, futures option trading of all this risk loss may not be suitable to all investors. Good luck and good trading.
Phillip Streible, Chief Market Strategist