End of Year Rally?

Grain Express Research Posts

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Grain markets were under pressure in yesterday’s trade but are firming up after defending significant support levels. Are the markets gearing up for an end of year rally?

Corn

Technicals (March)

March corn futures continued to slide lower yesterday which took prices back towards the low end of the risk range from 470-473.  We think this pocket represents an opportunity for traders on both sides of the markets.  For the Bears, an opportunity to reduce exposure.  For the Bulls, an opportunity to put on exposure.  Our bias has been tilted to the bearish side for some time now, but this morning we are moving that to outright Neutral/Bullish, aka cautiously optimistic.  

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance:  493-496 1/2****, 502 1/2-505***

Pivot: 481-484 

Support: 470-473****, 460-464 1/2**

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March corn futures (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). 

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

Soybeans

Technicals (March)

The bulk of the trade volume has shifted out to the March contract.  March soybean futures are flirting with trendline support with trendline resistance lurking in the background.  A breakout or breakdown from this wedge could spark a bigger directionally move, with South American weather a potential catalyst to spur that move.  We are moving our bias from cautiously bearish to outright Neutral as we could make the case for a move either way.  On one hand, you have 

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 1340-1342***, 1360-1362**

Pivot: 1325-1330

Support: 1318-1320**, 1305-1314****, 1282-1285****

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for January soybean futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.  

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

Wheat

Technicals (March)

March wheat futures have been choppy to start the week as market participants look to tie up any loose ends before the long weekend. The choppy trade has done little to alter the technical landscape, keeping many of the support and resistance levels intact.  We have had a bearish tilt in our bias, but the lack of a clear-cut rejection from these levels may indicate the market is building energy for another leg higher.  We are moving our bias to outright Neutral for the time being. 

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 622-631***, 645-650*** 

Pivot: 608 1/2-611 

Support: 591 1/2-595***

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March Chicago wheat futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday. 

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

Oliver Sloup, VP & Co-Founder, Blue Line Futures

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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