Consumer Confidence came in at the highest level since July 2022, and the 10 year yield hits a 180 day low of 3.87
TRANSCRIPT
Good afternoon, traders. It’s Chris Chavez with Blue Line Futures, and it’s your daily midday market minute. Stocks are continuing to grind higher here today. We got better than expected consumer confidence numbers. But before we get to it, if you’re watching this video, like and subscribe. If you’re on our website, there’s also a link to direct you to YouTube, and you can subscribe that way. We’d love for you to follow us. We’d love for you to help us build our following. Yeah, so we got some consumer confidence numbers this morning. Highest level that we’ve seen since July of this year. Estimates were for 103.8. We got a print of 110 and 710. So, you know, really seeing the uptick in consumer confidence levels. That’s feeling a little bit of a rally here today. The Russell outperforming once again, but all stock indices are positive. The Dow, the S&P and the Nasdaq crude oil also pushing higher. You know, we were seeing some of these geopolitical tensions escalate a little bit in the Red Sea. Do you think it’s possible we could see a little bit of a war premium or geopolitical premium baked into the market, especially ahead of the holidays with consumer confidence numbers coming out better than expected here today? Definitely looks like demand is still pretty strong. Now, one thing I really want to highlight here is this Goldilocks narrative, right? Atlanta Fed GDP now yesterday was revised higher from 2.6 percent to 2.7 percent week over week. However, the earlier part of this month, December 1st, we saw Atlanta Fed GDP now call for growth of 1.2 percent for the quarter. We’re now at 2.6 percent. So we have seen growth tick up, at least expectations from the Atlanta Fed. Those expectations for growth have started to tick up. Consumer confidence numbers, you know, coming in better than expected here today. That’s another catalyst, as well as still seeing job gains, nonfarm payrolls, the latest release and wage growth is reflected by average hourly earnings. So I think that the Goldilocks narrative is certainly coming into play right now, the soft landing or no landing potentially. And now the CME FedWatch tool calling for a 79 percent chance of an interest rate cut by March of 2024. That’s up from 70 percent in the earlier part of this week. So we’re continuing to see odds shoot higher. The 10 year yield hit a 180 day low here today, 387 basis points to really seeing the reprice happening and still seeing a lot of money on the sidelines. You know, money market funds still holding quite a bit of cash. And, you know, it’s possible we could see a lots of money start to come out of those money market funds here in the new year, especially if yields start to come down even lower. Now, major support and resistance levels you want to keep an eye on, especially looking at the S&P two star level, not as significant, but we want to see a break and close above here to continue to see more momentum for 80 and 48, 20 and a quarter to 48, 24 and a quarter NASDAQ two star level 17000 to 1723. Again, we want to see a break and close above these levels and crude oil again, potential holiday bid, you know, and geopolitical risks, you know, ahead of the holiday three-star level 7570 to 7605. And if you have any questions, reach out to our trade desk. We’re here for you. Remember futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.