Phil Streible with Blue Line Futures discusses Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum, and other commodity topics.
Phillip Streible, Chief Market Strategist
AUTO-TRANSCRIBED
Good morning, it’s Thursday, December 21st, about 6 a.m. Central Time. Overnight, the precious metals are mixed after yesterday’s weaker session. You have February gold up $2 at 2050, March silver down 9 cents at 2454, March copper down 1 at 389, and January Platinum down 4 at 971. So, looking at the markets here, they’re kind of mixed. We saw US equities, they’ve been grinding higher since those October lows, really gaining some momentum in November, and then also continuing through on December. Yesterday, a big selloff towards the end of the day, it was the worst day for the S&P 500 since September, and now we’re rebounding back here today. So, I believe that it was just some large traders or large funds really kind of cashing out, calling it the end of the season, the end of the year. So, looking at the gold and silver market, they’re really since that extension upwards, they’ve been consolidating sideways. Your key levels of resistance on Silver, it’s going to be $24.92. We get above there, you’re going to see momentum buying, you’ll see some short covering take place. We’re building this kind of bullish pennant, and the same thing with the gold market, that upper end of the boundary is going to be about 2062. We get above that level, should be a breakout to the upside on the precious metals. Now, what’s keeping this thing in check since that big move up with the FOMC meeting are the central bankers kind of backpedaling on whether or not they’re going to raise rates or cut rates as soon as March. They’re really trying to push it out. A lot of people are saying, ‘Hey, we don’t see those rate cuts until mid-next year, mid-2024.’ You’re going to see that kind of talk and that dialogue because I think that the Fed has really been politicized. They want to keep this market up, they want to keep inflation low, and they’re going to keep things in check until they get some of those preliminary results, especially with the current administration. According to the polls that I see, they are trailing significantly. Now, looking at the crude oil market, it is selling off a bit. We’re not touching those lows that we saw, that sub-70, where we really see some value on like March, June, and farther out contracts in those lower 70 levels, high 69s. We kind of shot back up, now we’re backpedaling here, taking a little bit off here. I think people are just cashing out for the end of the year. The dollar is significantly weaker, down about 37%. We’re trading at 101.66. And then, of course, you’ve got your 10-year treasury notes, they’re back here, 3.87 on that, on the 30-year, we’re hovering right at that 4% level. So, I think it’s anchored there, and we’ll see what happens. Really, I think these last two weeks, these are the types of things where you don’t chase markets going up, just like the rules that I have on Sunday nights. Sunday nights are for taking positions off, trimming things, taking profits, not establishing new positions. I mean, only in the grain market is where you’d have like a weather event that happen over the weekend where you might need to adjust things, because the weather takes so long for things to change and stuff like that. But otherwise, a lot of these knee-jerk reactions in the macro markets are just that, they tend to correct come Monday or Tuesday. So, looking at these markets going forward again, we see some value in gold in those low 2040s, and then near about 1999. On Silver, it’s going to be anything below that 24 level into the lower 23s. I think is where your value zone lies at. You got any questions on futures, options, trade, give me a call, 312-858-7303. I’ll be traveling today, like I said, back in the office next week, back in the office the rest of this week. And then, you know, I mean, if you got any questions again, just reach out, it’s not a big deal, 312-858-7303. Remember, futures and option trading involves risk, loss may not be suitable to all investors. Good luck, good trading.
Please note that this is a verbatim transcript and may contain errors or omissions typical of live speech.
Phillip Streible, Chief Market Strategist