Phil Streible with Blue Line Futures discusses Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum, and other commodity topics.
Phillip Streible, Chief Market Strategist
AUTO-TRANSCRIBED
Good morning, it’s Tuesday, December 26, about 6:30 a.m. Overnight the precious metals are higher after Friday’s tight trading range. We’ve got February gold up $5 at 2073, we got March silver up 8 cents at 2464, March Copper’s up 1 at 391, and January platinum’s down 4 at 977. So, we come into the final trading week of 2023, and one thing I like to reflect on around some of these key dates like halfway through the year, the first quarter, Thanksgiving, and then coming up into the end, is how we stack up for the year. So, gold right now up 7%, it’s the best performing metal that’s out there right now. Copper’s unchanged, Silver’s down 22%, and platinum’s down 12%. Now, Palladium went off a cliff, so I didn’t look at that one, and generally, because of the volatility involved with Palladium, we don’t necessarily watch it as much until it reaches some extreme levels. When it broke below that $1,000 level, it was quite eye-opening, and you could see the strength of that short covering rally. So, a real tough market for either the Bulls or the Bears due to that volatility. Now, getting back to Gold here, it continues to edge higher, and it’s very constructive in my opinion on the charts, just looking at it here. It flipped on our proprietary trading system back to a bullish trend on December 22nd with another breakout. So, it is back to that bullish trend here, and it really looks out to those interest rate cuts in 2024. If we get any kind of disappointment on those cuts, we should see gold futures react adversely because of it, but really, we’re looking for three interest rate cuts in March, in June, and then finally in December. If Jerome Powell does pull those interest rate cuts forward, you could see an acceleration upwards on gold, and it could attack those all-time highs and contract highs. Now, not to put silver down at all, because of the fact that it’s still in a bearish trend, it is at that upper end of that boundary where it could break to the neutral trend, and then ultimately go back to a bullish trend. So, that number there, 2493, and I’ve written about it several times on Kitco. Unfortunately, their site’s down, so you didn’t see an article up from me on that. I was slightly disappointed, though, in the reaction in the gold market, given that Friday night and Saturday over the weekend, and I hope everyone had a great holiday weekend, that there was a lot of Middle East tensions, a lot of things going on, there were a lot of Iranian-backed militants that were firing rockets. I would have thought we would have saw a better reaction geopolitically on the Sunday night open, but gold really muted, and also the crude oil market really muted as well. Now, shifting focus to crude oil, it is up about 3/4 of a percent at the moment, just catching some life to it. I think this could be as traders come back into the market. February crude oil at $74.11, up 55 cents. The dollar index unchanged here, 101.36, and really the currencies are quite mixed. Grains haven’t opened yet, and those 10-year treasury yields down one at 3.89. So, I expect this to be, for this type of week, generally what you get is you get some periods where the market isn’t doing much at all, and then all of a sudden, you got this burst of volatility. Economic data front, I haven’t mapped that out yet, but tend to, as we get towards the end of the year, traders will tend to take a step back here, look forward, and get a game plan going for 2024. And I suggest you do the same as well, reflect on some of the bad trades you had, some of the trades that you caught, what you could have done a little bit better as far as risk management, etc. So, you got any questions, give me a call, love to talk to you, 312-85-7303. Remember, futures and option trading does involve risk, loss may not be suitable to all investors. Good luck, good trading.
Please note that this is a verbatim transcript and may contain errors or omissions typical of live speech.
Phillip Streible, Chief Market Strategist