Anticipating a decline in trading volume for the week, equity markets could be more susceptible to the impacts of headline risk and treasury auctions. Geopolitical headlines are driving crude higher, while metals struggle to see positive territory.
TRANSCRIPT
Good afternoon, Traders. It’s Chris Chavis with Blue Line Futures, and it’s your daily midday Market minute. The Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ 100 are leading Equity markets higher here today, but before we get to it, if you’re watching this video, like it, subscribe. If you’re on our website, there’s also a link to direct you to YouTube, and you can subscribe that way. We’d love for you to follow us, we’d love for you to help us build our following. Yeah, so when looking at the equity markets here this morning, we didn’t get a lot of economic data. We did see some treasury bill auctions. We will get a two-year note auction later here today, one eastern time. Now we did get S&P K Schiller this morning, came in slightly below expectations. Markets are in positive territory. One thing I want to highlight when looking at the yield curve here today, you’re seeing notes in negative territory and bonds actually in positive territory, so kind of looking like you’re seeing a little bit of an inverted trade taking place here today. When looking at the bond market, and want to continue to pay attention to that, certainly think that if conditions start to look a little bit worse and you start to see this inverted yield curve take place, I would be a little bit concerned. Looking at the CME fed watch tool, there’s still over an 80% probability of a cut in the March meeting, and this week’s not going to be data-driven. I would be a little bit more concerned with headline risk as we’re not going to get a lot of economic data, but we will continue to get more treasury auctions. We have a 5-year notes and a seven-year note auction later this week and more treasury bill auctions as well. Now, when looking at Equity markets today, Russell leading the way higher, you know, crude oil is also in positive territory. We got some more geopolitical headline, you know, geopolitical headlines, you know, coming out of the Middle East, specifically saw some headlines in Yemen. So, you know, when you’re kind of seeing some of this take place, you really want to see crude hold significant support and breakthrough major resistance, and that for crude is going to be 7570 to 7605. That’s a three-star level that we want to see us break and close above, especially if headline risk, you know, geopolitical tensions are starting to emerge again. I would also want to pay attention to the gold market, you know, 2079 and 2/10 to 2083. That’s a three-star resistance level that we want to clear as well. I’m looking at Equity markets, really want to see the S&P break and close above 4830 and 34. That’s essentially the previous high that the market set here as of late. So, we can get above there, I think we could continue to grind our way higher. Expecting to see a little bit of light volumes here, light volume trading this week, though, as you know, we are still amidst the holiday season. We’re looking at the NASDAQ. I want to see us get above 1721 to 1741. Think that could make a good case for us to continue to see more momentum as well. Again, if you have any questions, reach out to our trade desk. We’re here for you. Remember, future trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.