Will Grains Rally in 2024?

Grain Express Research Posts

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Will turning the calendar over into a new year bring about a sentiment shift in the grain markets?

Corn

Technicals (March)

2023 is officially behind us with many perma-bulls are happy to see it in the rearview mirror.  For the year, March corn futures were nearly $1.50 lower.  For shorter term and opportunistic market participants, there was plenty of opportunity throughout the year on both sides of the market.  Typically, the first quarter is relatively slow.  Over the last 10 years, corn has averaged an 8 3/4 cent rally from the first trading day of the year to the day before the Prospective Plantings report (last trading day in March).  We are fairly optimistic that we could see the corn market hold ground near these levels, but upside expectations are somewhat tempered as there still doesn’t seem to be a lot to get excited about. 

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance:  481-484***, 493-496 1/2****

Pivot: 474 

Support: 466 1/2-470****

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March corn futures (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). 

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

Commitment of Traders

Below is a snapshot of the most recent Commitment of Traders report which showed Managed Money (Funds) holding a net short position to the tune of roughly 178k contracts, one of the largest net short positions they’ve had since June of 2020. 

Soybeans

Technicals (March)

March soybean futures attempted to rally in the last week of the year but fell flat in the final two sessions, settling to the lowest levels since the first half of October.  Opening calls are mostly mixed to a hair lower.  We will be keeping a close eye on the October 11th and 12th lows which come in at 1282 1/2 and 1282 3/4, respectively.  Below that and there is about 20 cents of air beneath, which would take us back to the June 28th low.  On the flip side, trendline resistance and our pivot pocket will be the hurdle the Bulls want to get back above to put the ball back in their court. 

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 1325-1330***, 1340-1342***, 1360-1362**

Pivot: 1316-1320 

Support: 1282-1285****, 1262 1/4-1266 1/4

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March soybean futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.  

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

Commitment of Traders

The most recent commitment of traders report showed funds holding a net long position of 4,767 futures and options contract, broken down that is 70,617 longs VS 65,850 shorts.  It is the smallest net long position since the back half of October.

Wheat

Technicals (March)

March Chicago wheat futures had a decent last month of the year as the market was able to rally nearly a dollar from November lows.  Will that momentum carry over into the start of the new year? TBD.  The Bulls want to see a breakout above 645-650 to spark a bigger rally.  On the support side, the Bulls want to defend 608 1/2-611.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 637-639**, 645-650*** 

Pivot: 618-622 

Support: 608 1/2-611***, 591 1/2-595***

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March Chicago wheat futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday. 

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

Oliver Sloup, VP & Co-Founder, Blue Line Futures

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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