Cattle Pop and Lean Hogs Drop

Livestock Round Up Research Posts

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Cattle futures pop and lean hogs drop to start the new year of trade. Will this set the tone for Q1?

Live Cattle

Technicals (February – G)

February live cattle futures were able to breakout above the top end of the recent range which accelerated prices into our resistance pocket from 172.40-172.55 where the market fell flat (for now).  If the Bulls can clear this hurdle it could open the door for an extension towards 174.75-175.25.  Turbulence in the outside markets could be a potential near term headwind. 

Resistance:  172.40-172.65***, 174.75-175.25***

Pivot: 168.00-168.50 

Support: 166.25**, 162.25-162.60***

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). 

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

Commitment of Traders Snapshot

(updated on Mondays)

Below is a snapshot of the most recent Commitment of Traders report which showed Managed Money (Funds) holding a net long position to the tune of roughly 17k contracts, one of the smallest net long positions they’ve had since the summer of 2022.

Feeder Cattle

Technicals (March – H)

March feeder cattle futures were able to trade higher to start the year, but it wasn’t the breakout move like we saw in live cattle as the top end of the trading range remains intact. If the Bulls can clear that it could open the door for an extension just north of 230, which was the breakdown point from November 24th. On the support side, the Bulls will want to defend our pivot pocket from 223.00-224.52.

Resistance: 226.85-227.925***, 232.20-233.50***

Pivot:  223.00-224.52  

Support: 216.40-218.00***, 209.00-210.00**

Seasonal Tendencies 

Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

Commitment of Traders Snapshot

(updated on Mondays)

Below is a snapshot of the most recent Commitment of Traders report which showed Managed Money (Funds) holding a net short position to the tune of roughly 3k contracts, one of the largest net short positions they’ve had since the last January.

Lean Hogs

Technicals (February – G)

February lean hogs had a tough start to the new year as the market posted new contract lows which came with a new closing low. The Bulls desperately need to see a close back above 65.80-66.00 to halt the pressure.  If they can achieve that, it could setup for a relief rally back towards the middle of the range which comes in closer to 69.00.

Resistance:  67.15-67.80***,72.00-72.50***

Pivot: 65.80-66.00 

Support:  64.00-64.50**

Seasonal Tendencies 

Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

Commitment of Traders Snapshot

(updated on Mondays)

Below is a snapshot of the most recent Commitment of Traders report which showed Managed Money (Funds) holding a net short position to the tune of roughly 6k contracts, a relatively neutral stance when comparing it to the last 9 months.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Blue Line Futures LLC shall be construed as, or is in the nature of, a Solicitation for entering into a futures transaction. Blue Line Futures LLC does not employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.

Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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