Are Grain Futures Prices Bottoming?

Grain Express Research Posts

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Grain markets consolidate following a rough start to the year.  Will the market be able to carve out a low or is there more downside to come?

Corn

Technicals (March)

March corn futures were lower early in yesterday’s trade but were able to reverse higher into the afternoon and close.  Prices in the early morning trade are flirting with our pivot pocket from 466 1/2-470.  If the Bulls can chew through this pocket, we could see a short covering rally take prices another dime higher before hitting the next roadblock.  Looking at historical seasonality we see that corn has shown the ability to firm in the first quarter.  MRCI narrows it down a little more, siting that May corn futures have been able to rally from January 13th to February 6th for 13 of the last 15 years (not a recommendation).  If you’d like more details on the history of this particular seasonal, please reach out to our trade desk. 

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance:  481-484***, 493-496 1/2****

Pivot: 466 1/2-470 

Support: 450**

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March corn futures (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). 

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

Commitment of Traders Snapshot

(updated on Mondays)

Below is a snapshot of the most recent Commitment of Traders report which showed Managed Money (Funds) holding a net short position to the tune of roughly 178k contracts, one of the largest net short positions they’ve held since June of 2020.

Soybeans

Technicals (March)

March soybean futures have been able to consolidate over the last over the last 24 hours following a rough start to the new year.  The Bulls need to continue defending 1262 1/4-1266 1/4 to keep their hopes alive of a short-term bottom.  A failure to do so could lead to another “woosh” lower.  On the flip side, if we see prices would back above our pivot pocket from 1282-1285, we could see the market work to close the gap from Monday morning, which comes in near 1296. 

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 1295-1300****, 1325-1330***

Pivot: 1282-1285  

Support: 1262 1/4-1266 1/4, 1250**, 1230-1235***

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March soybean futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.  

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

Commitment of Traders Snapshot

(updated on Mondays)

The most recent Commitment of Traders report showed funds holding a net long position of 4,767 futures and options contract, broken down that is 70,617 longs VS 65,850 shorts.  It is the smallest net long position since the back half of October. 

Wheat

Technicals (March)

March wheat futures broke lower yesterday which opened the door for a retest of the low end of the recent range, we defined this in yesterday’s report as 591 1/2-595.  From a risk/reward standpoint, it’s not a terrible spot for the Bulls to give it a shot.  However, a break and close below would be the “tap out area”, as it could lead to accelerated selling pressure towards 570.  

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 618-622***, 637-639**, 645-650*** 

Pivot: 608 1/2-611 

Support: 591 1/2-595***, 570**

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March Chicago wheat futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday. 

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

Oliver Sloup, VP & Co-Founder, Blue Line Futures

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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