Grain markets had a mixed day with corn and wheat higher while soybeans continued to struggle. Limit up in lean hogs gives us expanded limits tomorrow.
Corn
Corn futures squeaked out another day of small gains with the most actively traded March contract settling 1 1/4 cents higher to 466 1/2. The tight ranging trade has kept volatility near its lowest levels in 12 months, with the CME CVOL index at 17.79. The low volatility may make options more appealing for those looking to hedge or express an opinion in the markets.
The range of estimates for tomorrow’s weekly export sales report is 450k-1,400k, with the average estimate at 863k metric tons. This would be well below the 1,253k metric tons we saw last year.
This morning’s weekly energy report showed ethanol stocks up .3% to 23.579 billion barrels, a hair below the average analyst estimates of 23.802.
Soybeans
Soybean futures saw another round of selling today with the front month March contract leading the way lower. At the close march futures were 9 1/2 cents lower to settle at 1267 1/2, the lowest levels since the end of June. Much of the weakness comes as rains bring relief to dryness in the key growing region of Brazil, the world’s top producer and exporter of the oilseed. Favorable weather in Argentina and Paraguay are also weighing on prices.
The range of estimates for tomorrow’s weekly export sales report is 300k-1,300k metric tons, with the average estimate at 845k metric tons. Below the 984k metric tons we saw last week.
Many analysts are releasing their updated look for South American production ahead of next week’s WASDE report. StoneX, one of the FCMs we do business with, lowered their Brazilian soybean crop to 152.8 million metric tons. This compares to their previous estimate of 161.0 mmt.
Wheat
March Chicago wheat futures were the leader to the upside today, rallying 13 1/4 cents to 613 1/2. Today’s gain was enough to erase all of yesterday’s losses and ate into some of the losses from Tuesday. The US Dollar was unchanged to weaker for much of the day, which may have helped wheat stabilize.
The range of estimates for tomorrow’s weekly export sales report is 150k-450k metric tons, with the average estimate at 290k metric tons. Below the 318k metric tons we saw last week.
Live Cattle
Live cattle futures were lower across the board today with the February contract settling 72 cents lower to 171.125. This week’s 5-area average price remains near 175 in the most recent USDA update.
Daily slaughter was estimated at 126k head, 1k above last week.
Feeder Cattle
March feeder cattle futures finished the day 1.375 lower to settle at 225.65.
Lean Hogs
February lean hogs finished the day 3.75 higher to settle at 39.05, which is the daily trading limit. Today’s limit up move expands tomorrow’s daily trading limit to 5.50. A turn in the cash market helped spur the buying spree today which took us near where we started the week.
Hog slaughter was estimated to be at 491k, 1k above last week