Cattle futures stall against resistance while lean hogs surge to finish the day limit up, giving us expanded limits in today’s trade.
Live Cattle
Technicals (February – G)
February live cattle futures fizzled out against resistance in yesterday’s trade, that remains intact for today’s trade from 172.40-172.65. Support comes in from 168.00-168.50, the Bulls will want to defend this pocket on a closing basis to help prevent further selling pressure.
This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of beef at 9,500 MT for 2023 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 69 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Resistance: 172.40-172.65***, 174.75-175.25***
Pivot: 168.00-168.50
Support: 166.25**, 162.25-162.60***
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Below is a snapshot of the most recent Commitment of Traders report which showed Managed Money (Funds) holding a net long position to the tune of roughly 17k contracts, one of the smallest net long positions they’ve had since the summer of 2022.
Feeder Cattle
Technicals (March – H)
March feeder cattle futures continued to fall flat against the upper end of the range, in yesterday’s trade. A continued failure could lead to further consolidation and a retest to the low end of the recent range.
Resistance: 226.85-227.925***, 230.00**, 232.20-233.50***
Pivot: 223.00-224.52
Support: 221.10-222.72***, 216.40-218.00***
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Below is a snapshot of the most recent Commitment of Traders report which showed Managed Money (Funds) holding a net short position to the tune of roughly 3k contracts, one of the largest net short positions they’ve had since the last January.
Lean Hogs
Technicals (February – G)
Yesterday’s limit up move came on the back of a turn in the cash market. That limit up close gives us expanded limits of 5.50 for today’s trade. We don’t expect to see that expanded limit tested given yesterday’s trade. However, if the Bulls can find some follow-through momentum, we could see a retest of the top end of the range near 72.00.
This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of pork at 17,800 MT for 2023 were down 25 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Resistance: 67.15-67.80***,72.00-72.50***
Pivot: 65.80-66.00
Support: 64.00-64.50**
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Below is a snapshot of the most recent Commitment of Traders report which showed Managed Money (Funds) holding a net short position to the tune of roughly 6k contracts, a relatively neutral stance when comparing it to the last 9 months.
