Grain Markets Continue to Bleed Lower

Grain Express Research Posts

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Grains are weaker to start a big week as traders gear up for reports from CONAB and USDA

Corn

Technicals (March)

March corn futures have traded on both sides of unchanged to start the week.  The two main events this week will be Wednesday’s update from CONAB and Friday’s USDA report.  We would not be surprised to see a choppy trade into that report as market participants look to position.  Despite our cautiously optimistic outlook, the path of least resistance keeps the Bears in the driver’s seat to start the week.   We will want to see consecutive closes back above 466 1/2-470 to feel better about being more bullish.  

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance:  481-484***, 493-496 1/2****

Pivot: 466 1/2-470 

Support: 450**

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March corn futures (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). 

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

Commitment of Traders Snapshot

(updated on Mondays)

Below is a snapshot of the most recent Commitment of Traders report which showed Managed Money (Funds) were net sellers of roughly 17k futures and options contracts, expanding their net short position to 197k contracts.  At the end of November, they were as short as 206.5k contracts, which was the largest net short position since 2020.

Soybeans

Technicals (March)

March soybeans are working on the sixth lower day in the last 7 sessions as Funds are officially net short.  1250-1260ish is a pocket that has acted as an inflection point over the last 9 months (as seen in chart below) The Bulls need to defend this area on a closing basis to prevent an even bigger technical breakdown. The next support pocket we see comes in from 1230-1235.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 1282-1285***, 1295-1300****, 1325-1330***

Pivot: 1250-1260

Support: 1230-1235***

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March soybean futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.  

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

Commitment of Traders Snapshot

(updated on Mondays)

The most recent Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net sellers again, for the seventh consecutive week.  The are seen holding a net short position of 11,629 futures and options contract, broken down that is 69,804 longs VS 81,433 shorts.  This is the largest net short position since 2020.

Wheat

Technicals (March)

March Chicago wheat futures are leading the way lower in the grain complex to start the week, erasing gains from last Thursday and Friday.  This morning’s pullback takes us right back near the 50% retracement (middle of the range) from the November low to the December high.  If the Bulls fail to hold ground here, a retest of the contract lows is not out of the question. 

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 618-622***, 637-639**, 645-650*** 

Pivot: 608 1/2-611 

Support: 591 1/2-595***, 570**

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March Chicago wheat futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday. 

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

Oliver Sloup, VP & Co-Founder, Blue Line Futures

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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