NY Fed 1yr Consumer Inflation Expectations come in at 3%. The 10yr yield is now below 400bps, and there is now a 69% chance of a cut in March.
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Good afternoon, traders. It’s Chris Chavez with Blue Line Futures, and it’s your daily midday market minute. The NASDAQ outperforms here today, the Dow Jones slumps, but before we get to it, if you’re watching this video, like and subscribe. If you’re on our website, there’s also a link to direct you to YouTube. You can subscribe that way. We would love for you to follow us, we would love for you to help us build our following.
Looking at the markets here today, specifically the equity markets, the NASDAQ is outperforming, Dow Jones slumping. It’s really the reverse of the trend that we’ve seen to kick off this year. We’ve seen a little bit more of a defensive trade as of late, that’s kind of shifting here today. Looking at other risk assets, you know, crude oil taking it on the chin here today, gold and silver, precious metals trying to enter positive territory, and cryptocurrency also outperforming to the upside here today along with tech.
Now, one thing I want to highlight, we did get a little bit of data here this morning. New York Fed one-year consumer inflation expectations came in at 3%, definitely a positive thing to see for the markets today. This week’s going to be filled with a lot of Fed Committee Member talks. You know, you’re going to hear a lot of news releases based on what specific committee members are saying. Today we’ll get Committee Member Bosk, who will be speaking. He’s also a voting member this year, so it’s going to hold a little bit more weight. The markets can definitely be subject to some of the moves that we see.
Now, we’ll have Consumer Credit due today at around two Central Standard Time, some more economic data. Other than that, we just about had everything that we were going to see today. Later this week, we’re going to get inflation numbers, CPI on Thursday, PPI on Friday, and a lot of Treasury issuance coming to market here this week, bills, notes, and bonds. Definitely going to want to pay attention to notes and bonds, see how the demand shapes out for some of these longer-duration securities that are coming to market.
Looking at CME FedWatch tool here today, about a 69% chance of an interest rate cut in the month of March. The 10-year is now below 400 basis points as well, definitely providing some relief to risk assets here again today. Looking at the S&P, want to really see us get above Friday’s highs. Now, right now, as of the time of this video, we’re right around there, just marginally higher. You want to see a break and close above this level, so this is a level that we’ve pegged as a three-star resistance level in our research, 4760 to 4766. A5, we break and close above there, definitely looks like a little bit of a reversal of a trend, or at least confirmation of the start of that. We could continue to see capitulation. Ultimately, the data this week, Treasury issuance, Fed talk, is going to be the most important, and that will be the driver for these markets, but that’s a level to pay attention to.
NASDAQ, three-star resistance, 16719 to 16737, same thing, you want to see a break and close above that level. Crude oil, three-star support as we’re seeing weakness here today, $70.6 to $74.9. We see a breaking close below this level, we may, you know, end up finding our footing around 67.5, you know, that high 60 mark, before we can then see a little bit more consolidation, but you want to see that support level held.
Gold, four-star resistance level, really same thing with the S&P. You really saw a sharp spike in volume here last week, all the way up to 271 and a tenth, and then, you know, the market just kind of slammed gold right back down with a lot of volume. So that’s a four-star level to pay attention to. You want to see a break and close above there to see a little bit more momentum, and then maybe with the role of the February gold contract, we can then try to retest the $2,100 mark if we can get above that level.
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