Cattle futures continue to reject resistance. Will the winter weather be enough to break it out?
Live Cattle
Technicals (February – G)
February live cattle futures opened higher yesterday morning but fizzled out within the first hour of trade as sellers took advantage of the higher prices. Bulls will want to defend our pivot pocket from 168.00-168.50 to keep trendline support intact. Concerns over winter weather likely sparked the premium out of the gate, but the affects (if any) are still TBD. Yesterday’s 5-area average price for live steers was reported at 174.01 on 22,899 head.
Resistance: 172.40-172.65***, 174.75-175.25***
Pivot: 168.00-168.50
Support: 166.25**, 162.25-162.60***
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Fund positioning in live cattle was relatively flat last week with funds still hovering near a net long position of 17k contracts.
Feeder Cattle
Technicals (March – H)
March feeder cattle futures continue to test and fail against our resistance pocket from 226.85-227.925. One more test to the upper end of that may be enough to spark the breakout move and press prices back towards 230 and above. Our pivot pocket remains intact from 223.00-224.52. A break and close below that pocket cold spark additional pressure towards 221.10.
Resistance: 226.85-227.925***, 230.00**, 232.20-233.50***
Pivot: 223.00-224.52
Support: 221.10-222.72***, 216.40-218.00***
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of about 200 contracts, narrowly shrinking their net short position to 2,526.
Lean Hogs
Technicals (February – G)
February lean hog futures were able to mark a third day of gains which has taken prices back to a trendline resistance pocket. Just above that is the upper end of the range from 72.00-72.50. If the Bulls want to see a bigger rally, that’s the hurdle they will need to overcome. A failure against resistance could set prices back towards our pivot pocket from 67.15-67.80.
Resistance: 72.00-72.50***
Pivot: 67.15-67.80
Support: 65.80-66.00**, 64.00-64.50**
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Below is a snapshot of the most recent Commitment of Traders report which showed Managed Money (Funds) holding a net short position to the tune of roughly 17k contracts.
