Soybean futures have firmed up to start the shortened holiday week, this following Friday’s uniformly bearish WASDE report. Is the low in?
Corn
Technicals (March)
Corn futures saw one of the more bearish reports that we’ve seen in recent years, dropping prices to new contract lows and to their lowest levels since the end of 2020. That happens to coincide with fund positioning (seen in the third chart below) showing the Funds holding their largest net short position since 2020. Looking at the support side of the technical landscape, there’s not a lot to go off when we are in uncharted territory. The first point the Bulls will want to defend on a closing basis comes in at Friday’s low, 441. Arguably more important would be for the Bulls to achieve consecutive closes back above our new pivot pocket, 452-457.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 477-481***, 493-496 1/2****
Pivot: 452-457
Support: 441**
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March corn futures (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Below is a snapshot of the most recent Commitment of Traders report which showed Managed Money (Funds) were net sellers of roughly 32k futures and options contracts, expanding their net short position to 231k contracts, their largest net short position since 2020. Broken down that is 388,437 shorts VS 157,714 longs.
Soybeans
Technicals (March)
March soybeans got taken to the woodshed following the release of Friday’s WASDE report, taking prices back near $12.00. This was not just a psychologically significant level but also technically significant, representing the breakout point from June 9th that led to a $1.66 rally over the course of eight trading sessions. The ability for the market to defend that level and rally back to where we were before the release of the report is encouraging, but the Bulls still have their work cut out for them. The Bulls would like to see a conviction close back above our pivot pocket from 1250-1260 to help spark a bigger relief rally.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1282-1285***, 1295-1300****, 1325-1330***
Pivot: 1250-1260
Support: 1224**, 1200-1203***
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March soybean futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
The most recent Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net sellers again, for the eighth consecutive week. The are seen holding a net short position of 31,248 futures and options contract, broken down that is 64,373 longs VS 95,621 shorts. This is the largest net short position since 2020.
Wheat
Technicals (March)
Wheat futures did their best to hold their own in the face of a collapsing corn and soybean market on Friday. The market was able to defend the low end of the recent range on a closing basis, which the Bulls need to continue defending to start the week, that comes in from 587-591. The hurdle the Bulls want to get over comes in from 608 1/2-611.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 618-622***, 637-639**, 645-650***
Pivot: 608 1/2-611
Support: 587-591***, 570**
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March Chicago wheat futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
The most recent Commitment of Traders report showed fund positioning little changed from the previous week. Managed Money are still holding a net short position to the tune of about 58k futures and options contracts. Broken down that is about 128k shorts VS about 70k longs.
Oliver Sloup, VP & Co-Founder, Blue Line Futures