Grain futures markets were weaker again in yesterday’s trade but are holding their own in the early morning trade. Will the selling resume at the 8:30 open?
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Corn
Technicals (March)
March corn futures made new lows in yesterday’s session but are attempting to find their footing in the early morning trade. That may not be all that encouraging since any recent overnight strength has been overridden by an 8:30am sell program. The bears are in clear control, but a close back above 450-452 could be enough to spark some technical buying, whether that be from covering shorts or from bottom pickers.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 460-462***
Pivot: 450-452
Support: 440-441**
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March corn futures (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Below is a snapshot of the most recent Commitment of Traders report which showed Managed Money (Funds) were net sellers of roughly 32k futures and options contracts, expanding their net short position to 231k contracts, their largest net short position since 2020. Broken down that is 388,437 shorts VS 157,714 longs.
Soybeans
Technicals (March)
Soybeans broke lower yesterday to close just a hair away from Friday’s low. It almost seemed like a break below that and a break below the psychologically significant $12.00 level was inevitable in the overnight trade, but the market has been able to defend that. Now as mentioned in the corn section, the overnight strength may be taken with a grain of salt as it has not been able to hold through the day, at least as of late. If that support pocket can hold, the upside targets would be 1230-1235 and 1250-1260. A bounce back to those upper levels would not necessarily mean the low is in, it would likely be viewed as a Bear market rally until we see closes out above there.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1250-1260***, 1282-1285***
Pivot: 1230-1235
Support: 1200-1203***
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March soybean futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
The most recent Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net sellers again, for the eighth consecutive week. The are seen holding a net short position of 31,248 futures and options contract, broken down that is 64,373 longs VS 95,621 shorts. This is the largest net short position since 2020.
Wheat
Technicals (March)
Wheat futures attempted to stage a rally early in yesterday’s trade, but it was very short lived as sellers saw it as an opportunity. 570 remains intact as first support with the first barrier to the upside coming in from 587-591. The recent strength in the US Dollar has been a likely headwind for prices as it tends to have a more meaningful inverse correlation compared to other grain markets.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 608 1/2-611***, 618-622****
Pivot: 587-591
Support: 570**
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March Chicago wheat futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
The most recent Commitment of Traders report showed fund positioning little changed from the previous week. Managed Money are still holding a net short position to the tune of about 58k futures and options contracts. Broken down that is about 128k shorts VS about 70k longs.
Oliver Sloup, VP & Co-Founder, Blue Line Futures